Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market close November 2023 below 90%?
resolved Dec 1

Recently, former AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick confirmed that "bits of stories" have been corroborated regarding David Grusch's UFO claims. High-ranking officials are now beginning to seriously consider that non-human intelligence exists in mainstream media articles like this:


Yet, the following market, which is one of the most liquid on Manifold:


continues to hold while other markets involving this topic on Manifold have crashed to an implied 67%:


This market will resolve to YES if the price of the mentioned market is 89% or below on December 1, 2023 at noon EST, or if the mentioned market resolves to NO before then. Note that the time is set to noon so that I can monitor it should this be close. If the mentioned market resolves to N/A before then, this market will also resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

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predicted YES

The market closed November at 96%, so the resolution is NO.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Betting this market to 99% results in ~M800 profit if it resolves yes, but betting the other market down to 89% and then buying it back costs ~M5000

bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 5%

This kind of market is prone to manipulation, as someone can just spike the main market briefly in order to force this to resolve YES. If your goal is to measure changing opinion, you want something more like this:

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I'm not trying to manipulate any market; what I'm trying to do is to find out how much people have actually read into the topic.

I've made it clear elsewhere that I think the actual topic the market is about will resolve NO. My main concern about putting my "net worth" on the line is how hard it will be for the existing stigma involving the topic to be broken through. Markets are valued at what people believe, not about what the resolution criteria is.

The goal of putting a close resolution date is to determine where I can put my limit orders and get them filled before the exposure starts to widen on the topic. If this value starts to move down, I'll put the limit orders lower.

I do not think that the 2024 market is that valuable. I think we have months, at most, before this starts to break into the mainstream. In general, once 5-10% of people start to take something seriously, an idea quickly makes it way through a society. If we consider that some of the more serious reporting is now getting as many as 10 million views, we're not that far off from the tipping point where this issue starts to gain serious traction.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing By the way, I did bet on your market, but I can only bet 2, because there's no reason for me to bid that up past 5%; the odds are better on the main market. That's another reason why I think a long-term market doesn't work.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@SteveSokolowski the reason to bet in Isaac's 2024 market is that it likely closes at some point in 2024. You can 5-6x a portion of your mana there and then put more into main market at high 80s. This way you can make 40-50x instead of 15-20x just by betting in the main market.

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