Effective altruism and effective accelerationism share opposite views on AI risk and AI safety. Recent articles suggest that effective altruism has established awareness in Washington, but that effective accelerationists are becoming frustrated and looking to expand their spending and influence in 2024.

Which movement appears to be influencing policy more may be influenced by political spending, the results of the 2024 Presidential election, whether there are additional FTX and OpenAI-like EA blunders, and so on. At the end of 2024, which movement will have more influence in Washington DC?

During December 2024, a survey will be conducted of mainstream media outlets to review "year end lists" and "top 10 lists" that review the year. If a majority of the most prominent articles state that effective altruism became well known and affected US policy, the market will resolve to YES. If effective accelerationism is mentioned as dominating policy, the market will resolve to NO. If the decision is close, the market will resolve to either YES or NO. It will only resolve to N/A if there is an exact and unreconcilable tie, or if no articles whatsoever mention either movement.

It is not relevant whether articles mention that a movement "made progress catching up," is "up and coming," or "is expected to be a big player in 2025." If one of the movements changes its name or if it is replaced by a sucessor with the same goals, that movement will be used instead for consideration of this market.