This market will resolve each of the justices' names to the way that they vote on any case that reaches the Supreme Court regarding whether Donald Trump may be prosecuted for alleged criminal activity that occurred during the time he was serving as President.
The market will be decided on the opinion of whether Trump may be charged for at least one crime he allegedly committed in at least one circumstance that occurred between January 20, 2017 and January 20, 2021.
A NO resolution occurs if:
The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump is immune from prosecution for all crimes committed while serving as President under all circumstances
The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling NO by taking no action
A N/A resolution occurs if the justice:
Recuses himself or herself
Dies
Resigns
Attaches his or her name to opinions that are unreconcilable on the topic of criminal charges being permitted against Trump
A YES resolution occurs if:
The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump may be charged for at least one crime committed while serving as President under at least one condition
The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling YES by taking no action
The court denies certiorari or the majority ruling is so narrow that it does not actually affect Trump's current trials
The court rules that the case is moot, or the ruling is by default moot because it takes so long that Trump's trials conclude first
Broader rulings, such as those that use the words "any president" or "all presidents" in the right context, will be interpreted as applying to Trump.
The reasoning for why Trump may be prosecuted is irrelevant, even if the justice claims some trivial reason like standing; however, the reasoning must be in the context of addressing the issue of whether Trump may be charged.
RESOLUTION: See the comments below.
RELATED MARKETS:
1,000
3.00I think this one will be 9 - 0 against Trump. The conservative justices aren't going to accept a legal theory as bonkers as this one just to save him. Generally, I think the conservative justices aren't going to be super biased in favor of Trump on something like this, where it's an issue that only helps a particular conservative in a specific instance. Their conservative-ness comes out more when it's a case that's actually related to their conservative ideology.
@PlasmaBallin So if the judges want to support conservatism and are just going to make an outright biased vote, the correct choice would be to do exactly what you are proposing. Haley is up +17 against Biden and would win more states than Reagan. Republicans do not support him in polls if he is convicted.
That's actually the one decision where it's feasible to see all nine judges be completely and unashamedly biased and all agree on the same outcome.
@SteveSokolowski I don't think that's actually correct for this particular vote. For the case on Trump's eligibility, I definitely agree that the court ruling Trump ineligible would be the best gift they could possibly give to conservatives. But this case is just asking whether Trump is immune to prosecution for actions taken as president. He won't actually be convicted until the primaries are already over or almost over, so this ruling doesn't have any chance of stopping him from winning them.
