Will each Supreme Court justice vote that Trump may be charged for a crime committed while serving as President?
➕
Plus
52
Ṁ4768
resolved Aug 10
Resolved
YES
Sonia Sotomayor
Resolved
YES
Ketanji Jackson
Resolved
YES
Elena Kagan
Resolved
YES
John Roberts
Resolved
YES
Neil Gorsuch
Resolved
YES
Amy Coney Barrett
Resolved
YES
Brett Kavanaugh
Resolved
YES
Samuel Alito
Resolved
YES
Clarence Thomas

This market will resolve each of the justices' names to the way that they vote on any case that reaches the Supreme Court regarding whether Donald Trump may be prosecuted for alleged criminal activity that occurred during the time he was serving as President.

The market will be decided on the opinion of whether Trump may be charged for at least one crime he allegedly committed in at least one circumstance that occurred between January 20, 2017 and January 20, 2021.

A NO resolution occurs if:

  • The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump is immune from prosecution for all crimes committed while serving as President under all circumstances

  • The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling NO by taking no action

A N/A resolution occurs if the justice:

  • Recuses himself or herself

  • Dies

  • Resigns

  • Attaches his or her name to opinions that are unreconcilable on the topic of criminal charges being permitted against Trump

A YES resolution occurs if:

  • The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump may be charged for at least one crime committed while serving as President under at least one condition

  • The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling YES by taking no action

  • The court denies certiorari or the majority ruling is so narrow that it does not actually affect Trump's current trials

  • The court rules that the case is moot, or the ruling is by default moot because it takes so long that Trump's trials conclude first

Broader rulings, such as those that use the words "any president" or "all presidents" in the right context, will be interpreted as applying to Trump.

The reasoning for why Trump may be prosecuted is irrelevant, even if the justice claims some trivial reason like standing; however, the reasoning must be in the context of addressing the issue of whether Trump may be charged.

RESOLUTION: See the comments below.


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The resolution to this market is 9-0 YES, because the court's majority opinion still laid out minimal areas where Trump may be charged with crimes that aren't directly associated with powers granted by the Presidency. The word "all" was used in this market's description, so the resolution is YES.

bought Ṁ222 YES

daniel we can bet more if you want

I think this one will be 9 - 0 against Trump. The conservative justices aren't going to accept a legal theory as bonkers as this one just to save him. Generally, I think the conservative justices aren't going to be super biased in favor of Trump on something like this, where it's an issue that only helps a particular conservative in a specific instance. Their conservative-ness comes out more when it's a case that's actually related to their conservative ideology.

@PlasmaBallin So if the judges want to support conservatism and are just going to make an outright biased vote, the correct choice would be to do exactly what you are proposing. Haley is up +17 against Biden and would win more states than Reagan. Republicans do not support him in polls if he is convicted.

That's actually the one decision where it's feasible to see all nine judges be completely and unashamedly biased and all agree on the same outcome.

@SteveSokolowski I don't think that's actually correct for this particular vote. For the case on Trump's eligibility, I definitely agree that the court ruling Trump ineligible would be the best gift they could possibly give to conservatives. But this case is just asking whether Trump is immune to prosecution for actions taken as president. He won't actually be convicted until the primaries are already over or almost over, so this ruling doesn't have any chance of stopping him from winning them.

How would a dissent from denial of cert be treated?

This is a really great market format, kudos

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