Note: This market should be resolved to N/A. If someone else wishes to recreate it, they are welcome to do so.
Explanation: NBC News aired a segment on prediction markets last night. Trump watches a lot of TV, and if Manifold is featured in the next report, this is one of the most likely markets that would be featured and which the President would visit.
After the death threat against Cheney was made, I have been removing content that might be construed as critical of Trump and I do not want my name to come to the President's attention.
I apologize for not recognizing this sooner. I will not be creating markets related to Trump, and I will be deleting this explanation in a few days. This statement should not be taken to suggest that I oppose Trump, just that I don't want it to be accidentally construed as such.
@mods , please resolve this market at N/A.
1,000
3.00@SteveSokolowski you seem pretty convinced - are you be willing to bet on whether any site users will receive retaliation for criticism of the Trump administration on Manifold?
I'm happy to sell my positions in almost everything else to pour mana into betting that won't happen.
@mods is there any way to downrate incorrect N/A resolutions to zero stars, in the way we'd rate an actual resolution?
@mods , please resolve this market to N/A, since it cannot be reassigned to someone else. Explanation is in market text. If not resolved today, I will resolve to YES and delete the text.
Done. For the other traders, there's a similar market here: /riverwalk3/if-trump-wins-a-second-term-will-he
The moderators said that they cannot change the name of the owner of this market, and I am removing anything of mine that can be considered as political content.
I will be resolving this market as YES tomorrow and then deleting my comments here. You can rate the resolution as you choose, but I want to remain safe.
@SteveSokolowski What exactly changed between October and now? What was the point of creating this market if you delete it because Trump wins?
@SteveSokolowski Why resolve YES rather than N/A? Especially if the goal is to distance yourself from this market, nullifying the entire market seems like a much better fit than actually resolving it to an outcome.
@Ziddletwix I can't resolve it to N/A. They changed the interface. I would definitely prefer to do that if I could.
As to what happened, I have updated the market description.
I don't feel comfortable anymore with having my name associated with this market (or any markets about Trump), and request the @mods to change it to be owned by someone else.
Otherwise, I will resolve it tomorrow.
@jacksonpolack Thanks, but just to be clear, I don't just want the mods to "resolve" it, as in clicking YES or NO, I don't want my real name associated with anything that Trump might talk about in the future. So, please remove my name from the market, if you weren't planning on doing that already.
@SteveSokolowski you know you can change your name and display picture, right? that's easier than all this other paranoid hysteria
@SteveSokolowski FWIW I agree with your concern and have deleted all my Tweets. I am going to close my X account and remove all personal data. The risk of the government going after small fry is slight but would be catastrophic. You can close your account here and have them delete all data associated with you and they would probably do that.
@dlin007 Trump said that the "press is the enemy of the people" and that he would "root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country." He has said that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our nation" and that he would have "every right to go after" political enemies if elected. He also says that "sometimes revenge is justified" when talking about his political opponents.
Is it really paranoid to think that he might do what he says?
@JimAusman are you for real lol. I don't even know where to start but it'll suffice to say that there's 0.000000001% chance that you're remotely significant enough for Trump or his government to care about
@dlin007 I am not trying to be mean here, but your are not imaginative or well informed enough to have a qualified opinion. Advances with AI are going to make mass targeted manipulation possible and if you think Trump (or Musk) are too ethical to do this, I think you have seriously misjudged them. A historical read of the Stasi and their methods might be instructive.
@dlin007 Barton Gellman wrote an excellent book in collaboration with Edward Snowden called Dark Mirror on the kind of information available and the tools usable at the time, as well as a bit of musing on risk. He spent a career as a reporter at The Washington Post, so was more informed than most on the potential threats. This was before the advances in AI, so a bit dated now, but still relevant. He believes that the career civil servants at the NSA and other TLAs can be mostly trusted but this is exactly the “Deep State” that Trump despises and wants to eliminate.
@dlin007 I would estimate the risk as similar to my chance of dying in a car accident but I always wear my seatbelt.
@dlin007 I am not worried about my name being visible and have no concern about criticism for most things. I just don't think it's a good idea for anyone to be making markets on this particular topic in an authoritarian state.
The most likely person to control the first superintelligence is Donald Trump, and that training data is being collected now by xAI, most likely.
Note that this post should not be construed to suggest that I oppose Trump. I wrote extensively in another thread about how I considered voting for him. I just want to make sure that he doesn't get that impression from the training data or from watching this on the news.
@GraemeStuart The market will close early in 2025, as the text states. Note that the market won't close on election day, in case a coup occurs from either side.