The September 2024 "Has weak AGI been achieved?" Manifold poll has closed and the existing linear trendline has yet again been invalidated. The percentage of Manifold users who agree that weak AGI has been achieved now stands at 36.4%, an increase of 5% since the August 2024 poll. Also for the first time, the two polls had exactly the same number of votes; there was a vote swing where some respondents changed from NO to YES.
The trendline has become steeper and now projects that Manifold will declare the achievement of AGI in four months.
Will the new linear trendline again be exceeded by accelerating progress, with at least 40% of Manifold respondents (ignoring those who express no opinion) agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved in the October 2024 poll? This market will resolve YES if that occurs, and NO if it does not.
PREVIOUS ITERATION OF THIS QUESTION:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ346 | |
| 2 | Ṁ221 | |
| 3 | Ṁ166 | |
| 4 | Ṁ129 | |
| 5 | Ṁ102 |