Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
10
Ṁ150Ṁ1832100
38%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
40% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
43% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
48% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
23% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
15% chance
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
78% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2044?
78% chance