Every month, Manifold users are invited to vote on polls that ask whether humans have achieved weak AGI. In the polls, the definition of "artificial general intelligence" is not provided except to state that manipulation of the physical world is not required for "weak" AGI. The polls open on the 23rd of each month.
Currently, approximately one third of Manifold respondents believe that weak AGI has been achieved.
For the September 2024 poll, will the trendline continue, with 34.5% or more of Manifold users (excluding "no opinion") agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved?
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,380 | |
| 2 | Ṁ684 | |
| 3 | Ṁ450 | |
| 4 | Ṁ351 | |
| 5 | Ṁ92 |
The result of the poll is 36.4%, exceeding the August result of 31.8% and showing an acceleration even beyond the linear trendline. The resolution of this market is YES.