On June 23, 2024, a poll will be posted that asks Manifold users whether weak AGI has been achieved as of June 23. The poll will remain open until June 30. The answers will be exactly the same as the following poll, but no specific model will be referenced:
/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp
This market will resolve to the following number:
ceiling (100.0 * (number of YES votes) / (number of YES + NO votes))
Responses of "no opinion" will be ignored, so users don't vote just to see the results. The poll will intentionally not define "weak AGI," other than to differentiate it from "strong AGI" that manipulates the physical world, because the purpose is to see what society generally believes.
For reference, if this market had existed for the May poll, it would have resolved to 17 at the time of market creation. What will the number be at the end of June?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ988 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |