This market will resolve to all names - split evenly - that the next Pope takes. If the pope takes one listed name, that name will be YES; if there are two names, whether listed or not, each will resolve to 50%; if there are three, then 33%, and so on. A name not listed in the market will be considered as part of "Other," so "Other" can resolve to 100%, some intermediate percentage, or NO.
If the name taken only differs in spelling, the closest name listed in the market will be resolved.
Add your own answers! All answers must be a single word. Any answer that a user adds that is more than one word will resolve to NO. If a user adds a misspelling or alternate form of an existing answer, the last answer added will resolve to NO.
If there is no new pope by July 1, 2025 at midnight EDT, all answers will resolve to N/A.
See also:
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The official Vatican website, English version (https://www.vatican.va/content/vatican/en/holy-father.index.html), will be used as the resolution source to determine the name(s) taken by the next Pope.
Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Regarding names that are generally understood to be direct translations of each other across different languages (e.g., John, Juan, Jean, Giovanni):
If the next Pope chooses a name for which such direct translations exist as answers in this market, the answer corresponding to the translation that was added first to the market will resolve to YES or the appropriate percentage.
However, if the Pope specifically indicates that he is to be called by a particular language variant, then that specific variant listed as an answer will be the one that resolves to YES or the appropriate percentage, overriding the 'first added' rule.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Ṁ1,396 |
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Noticing “Pope” was one of the options and is also part of the bolded portion of the first sentence in his Wikipedia article
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV
Although I suppose that’s not a name he “took,” more so a title
Pope Pope would have been an all-time great name
@mods this market cannot be resolved; there is a "serialization error." This is a Manifold bug from the server side, so I'll leave it to the moderators to resolve.
@SteveSokolowski the trades are public so you tell us. Who is this Pope expert among us
@SteveSokolowski It could totally be an accident - it looks like it is well within the historical variability of Leo, and based on trade history appears to be just 1-2 people betting some pretty low M.
@SteveSokolowski I accidentally predicted the name in my market's description ten days ago: https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-roman-numerals-will-the-next?r=NGZh Coincidences happen.
@SteveSokolowski I had no insider info. The bulk of my position was built weeks ago when Leo was trading at a pittance, I thought about 3-4% was a reasonable expectation.
@Odoacre especially when compared to the likes of Innocent or Urban, names that are basically unpickable if you know anything about European history. And let's not forget Galactus
Surprised Pius and Innocent are such high odds, they may have worked in the past but in the 21st century it comes across as extremely arrogant to name yourself such
@JuanPabloM sorry what does this mean? The previous pope is the one that chooses the successor's name?
@TheAllMemeingEye lol, no. My bad. The guy elected Pope in the movie Conclave, picks the name "Innocentius" (Innocent) as his papal name. I figure that's the reason for people guessing that
After N/A-ing the first version of the market, you’d think the creator would have been extra careful to avoid any paradoxes in resolution, but no…
@SteveSokolowski you need to explicitly state a resolution source for the “name”.
Given the current distribution of answers, I’d recommend English-language media or the conventional English language form of the name, if there are multiple forms of the same name listed as answers.
For example, the current Pope is named Franciscus in Latin (and signs his name as such) but is referred in English language media as “Pope Francis”, although this is NOT uniform across all languages.
@bens I'd recommend the official vatican website, in the english version.
https://www.vatican.va/content/vatican/en/holy-father.index.html
@SteveSokolowski this is a great decision. Do you agree also that the names in multiple languages are the same? Meaning, that you should make Juan “n/a”?
@FabioTran I would think that there may be a reason why a pope would select a name in a particular language, wouldn't you? I find it unlikely that the Vatican, which was already decided as the official source, would inconsistently refer to the name in different languages, correct?
@SteveSokolowski yes, the problem is you wrote:
If a user adds a misspelling or alternate form of an existing answer, the last answer added will resolve to NO
And for example, Antoine was added before Anthony, but they are the alternate forms of each other, so people are just trying to find out if they need to bet on one or the other.
@SteveSokolowski, the Vatican website presents the pope name in seven languages: Arabic, German, English, Spanish, French, Italian, and Portuguese. We also know that Latin is the official name of the pope.
Hence, for example, Pope Ioannes Paulus II (Latin), is listed in the Vatican website as Johannes Paul II (German), John Paul II (English), Juan Pablo II (Spanish), Jean Paul II (French), Giovanni Paolo II (Italian), and Joao Paulo II (Portuguese).
Please go to the Vatican website link here, pasted several times, to see all of them represented. You need to select the languages on the top.
I guess you only speak English, so perhaps it is a shock to you that Pope John Paul is known like that only in the US, the UK and other anglophone countries. If we go by the source, only the Latin and the Italian versions are official.
If the next pope is Ioannes Paulus III, how do you plan to resolve? The pope will not choose a name other than Latin.
@SteveSokolowski I did the research.
The research indicates that you appear to be correct; there are some names that are generally understood to be "direct" translations of other names. However, we can't just close the market again.
Therefore, we'll go with the exact text of the market. If a name is chosen where there are direct translations of many languages, the first one added will be resolved to YES or a percentage. If, however, the Pope specifically indicates that he is to be called by a specific language variant, then that variant will be the one that resolves to YES or a percentage.
@SteveSokolowski thank you, it does make sense. The original rules are clear. No one asked you to close the market again.
Hence, if the pope goes by Ioannes, John will be “yes” and Juan will be “no”, correct? Also, if he goes by Antonius, Antoine will be “yes” and Anthony will be “no”.
@FabioTran If that is the order they were added, then YES; I haven't checked the order at this time.
Keep in mind, though, that he may intentionally choose a foreign name to make a point and state he will not respond to other languages, sort of how there was one President who returned to sender any mail from citizens that was addressed to the "Acting President" to establish a precedent.
@SteveSokolowski I think the earlier comment from @Odoacre fixes this:
"I'd recommend the official vatican website, in the english version.
https://www.vatican.va/content/vatican/en/holy-father.index.html "
I think just going with one resolution source, rather than trying to parse which language's name is the pope's preferred one, is a more clear and unambiguous resolution.