How many ballots will be cast during the first 2025 papal conclave?

1kṀ19k

resolved May 8

Resolved

4 - 5

ALL

100%99.0%

4 - 5

0.1%

2 - 3

0.1%

6 - 9

0.1%

10 - 13

0.2%

14 - 21

0.1%

21 - 30

0.2%

31 - 46

0.1%

>= 47

This market will resolve to the number of ballots that are cast during the 2025 papal conclave. If the conclave has not started by July 1, 2025, all answers will resolve to N/A. Once 47 ballots are cast, the market will resolve early regardless of the outcome of the election.

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There has never been a conclave that ended on the first ballot, but there have been many that dragged on for years, so it's strange to me how 1 ballot has such high odds. The Tagle/Parolin supporters will see who is in the lead, and then throw their weight behind the other, so it's probably either 2 or a large number.

I think this election has higher stakes than most - given that the Cardinals have a supermajority left wing and the world is moving hard right. The impact on world politics could be significant and surely the electors know that.

I'm surprised how people are discounting the large numbers here.

@SteveSokolowski what's your evidence that the "world is moving hard right"?

@dlin007 My policy is not to perform Internet research for other users on any platform. I'll direct you to perform your own searches and use models to answer your question - thanks.