How many ballots will be cast during the first 2025 papal conclave?
4
1kṀ531
Jun 21
8.6 ballots
expected
14%
1
36%
2 - 3
19%
4 - 5
10%
6 - 9
7%
10 - 13
4%
14 - 21
3%
21 - 30
3%
31 - 46
3%
>= 47

This market will resolve to the number of ballots that are cast during the 2025 papal conclave. If the conclave has not started by July 1, 2025, all answers will resolve to N/A. Once 47 ballots are cast, the market will resolve early regardless of the outcome of the election.

See also:

Religion
Catholicism
Vatican
Pope Francis
Pope
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I think this election has higher stakes than most - given that the Cardinals have a supermajority left wing and the world is moving hard right. The impact on world politics could be significant and surely the electors know that.

I'm surprised how people are discounting the large numbers here.

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