How long will the next Catholic pope after Francis reign?

175Ṁ432

2099

Less than 1 month

Between 1 and 4 months

Between 4 months and 1 year

15%

Between 1 and 3 years

23%

Between 3 and 10 years

23%

Between 10 and 30 years

23%

30 years or longer

Intervals are left-closed right-open and based on calendar days in the Vatican time zone, e.g. if he is takes office on 1 July 2026 (regardless of the time of the day) and dies or resigns on 1 July 2036 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "Between 10 and 30 years" not "Between 3 and 10 years".

So far, 9 popes reigned for less than 1 month and only 2 reigned for more than 30 years, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope#Lengths_of_papal_reign (but note that that list uses a definition of length which is off by one day with respect to mine).

The deadline will be extended in case Pope Francis is still reigning on 31 December 2069.

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Note: the pope take office immediately after being elected if he's already a bishop, but needs to be consecrated first otherwise -- but the latter has never happened since 1831.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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