How long will Pope Leo XIV reign?
14
175Ṁ748
2055
0.6%
Less than 1 month
1.3%
Between 1 and 4 months
1.9%
Between 4 months and 1 year
2%
Between 1 and 3 years
21%
Between 3 and 10 years
42%
Between 10 and 30 years
30%
30 years or longer

He took office on 8 May 2025. Intervals are left-closed right-open and based on calendar days in the Vatican time zone, e.g. if he dies or resigns on 7 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "Between 3 and 10 years" whereas if he dies or resigns on 8 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "Between 10 and 30 years".

So far, 9 popes reigned for less than 1 month and only 2 reigned for more than 30 years, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope#Lengths_of_papal_reign (but note that that list uses a definition of length which is off by one day with respect to mine).

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Note: the pope take office immediately after being elected if he's already a bishop, but needs to be consecrated first otherwise -- but the latter has never happened since 1831.

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