Will Q-Day happen in 2025 or 2026? When all of our encryption is broken. | Manifold

Will Q-Day happen in 2025 or 2026? When all of our encryption is broken.

16

Ṁ100Ṁ1.7k

2028

4%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Cybersecurity analysts call this Q-Day—the day someone builds a Quantum Computer that can crack the most widely used forms of encryption.

https://archive.is/00jZB

It may have already happened and they kept it a secret. So this market will not close until 1/1/28. Although Q-day must happen a year before that 1/1/27 to resolve as Yes. I think by then everyone will know if the answer is Yes. Without public proof the answer is No.

Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Q-Day refers to when quantum computers can break the popular most used non-quantum resistant algorithms (not all encryption).

Quantum Computing

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Will a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?

RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032

Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ49 NO

For me Q-Day is when a new James Bond movie comes out

All encryption or just non-quantum resistant algorithms?

@WilliamGunn The popular most used non-Q resistant algorithms, obviously.

Decryption always goes along with improved Encryption. So I guess NO.

@DaniellqdC6 It will not improve enough by 2026.

@SteveBright and neither will quantum computing.

People are also trading

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Will a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?

RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032

Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Related questions

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Will a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?

RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032

Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?