Here overnight can be negotiated and adjusted I would think definitely not longer than a month. If candidate doesn't meaningfully overturn all understanding of cryptography, the market continues.
Mathematical computation models, and other multidisciplinary fields can be candidates if they are aiming to reinvent encryption forever.
Theory/applications demonstrates the obsoleteness of the Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA) Encryption Algorithm
Related questions
@D93dc Do you have a friend who likes cryptography and doesn't have a position in this market? You could let them judge.
Does quantum computing algos count?
I'm not very sure on the details, but I have a low-confidence understanding that the algos are largely already developed, and we just need economic big quantum computers be physically implemented to actually run them?
It seems like they would be rolled out more slowly than over the course of a month, but on the other hand, there could be a big announcement that rapidly makes everyone realize shit's not gonna keep working long and start reacting big...
@TomPotter Of course, we are talking about something that has instant application across all fields of innovation. Nothing is off the table.
I get giddy just thinking about it.
@D93dc So, I'm hearing that the definition of "math revolution" here would be tied to the actual successful implementation of the quantum algorithms on real quantum computers, as opposed to simply having the theoretical algorithms only? I.E.: a sudden revelation that "oh shit the tech is actually here and working all of a sudden"?
> I get giddy just thinking about it.
Hehe ;)
I think it's really crazy most encryption isn't currently being shifted as rapidly as possible .. even if we don't know which encryption algos are fully resistant (to both quantum and traditional attacks), we can still at least throw in a few add'l different likely-resists-quantum stages in series in addition to the traditional pass. Seems like an easy way to drastically reduce vulnerability to store-now-decrypt-later attacks.
@TomPotter You're on the right track and yes, the demonstration of incomparably superior than prime number based encryption should be a pretty ''oh shit'' moment lol
@D93dc Oh, wait, maybe I'm confused. I was talking about quantum algorithms that break current encryption. And their implementation. I assumed this market was about a vulnerability in current schemes being suddenly available and disrupting everything. I just realized you're now talking about developing new algorithms that are quantum resistant, and I'm confused what the focus of the market is.
I thought we already had a bunch of candidates for quantum resistant algos (running on trad CPU), and we just need to verify them more rigorously, but there's a good chance they work great? And similarly we already have prime-number-encryption breaking algorithms (running on quantum computers) and we just need to actually implement the computer?
@D93dc I guess when you say "demonstration of incomparably superior" maybe you're talking about making it mathematically formalized instead of what we have now of "a good guess" that it "will probably" resist quantum computers?
So that would be the revolution? That we prove the new algorithms work, and we can forgo using the old ones entirely? (As opposed to what I was suggesting in my previous reply ["we can still at least throw in a few add'l..."] of using trad + multiple new-gen algos in series to hedge as strongly as we can against both quantum computer implementation and the uncertainty of the viability of each of the new algos without the actual proof for any yet)
@TomPotter Yes that is still a part of it, cyptography is just a good application of the latest in mathematics, the persistent assesment of developing theories and theoretical models, is more like the first who develop a way to demonstrably do this, in terms of rendering RSA based ecnryption obsolete, will make a very big splash and will perhaps set off a cascade of leaps.
@D93dc I am definitely not a mathematician/cryptographer and would love to have someone adept enlighten us with limitations of existing models and viable exciting alternatives and theoretical applications, or something like that c:
@D93dc To clarify, would sudden announcement / rolling out the business+engineering of successful large quantum computers that can run the current theoretical RSA-breaking algorithms count as a YES for the purpose of this market? Because, again, my understanding is that currently RSA is already vulnerable to quantum algorithms, and the only reason it's not broken in practice yet is that we've yet to actually build the quantum computer that can run them.
Or is the focus of this market more exclusively on the development of the math fundamentals that have application to cryptography? For example allowing us to reliably prove the resilience of new-gen algorithms to both traditional and quantum attacks (I assume somewhat likely), or to attack current encryption in new ways such as without a quantum computer (I assume not so likely).
@D93dc K, thanks. That makes this market more focussed. Interesting.
It seems (limited knowledge) the quantum rollout breaking RSA is likely only a matter of time, but by 2028 would have been somewhat early for it anyway. While the other stuff is more conditional on unknowns, but could happen any time.
I'm curious what Manifold decides for this market. I don't know much at all about the math fundamentals improvements that would possibly show up.
@TomPotter Given quantum computer implementation / rollout doesn't seem to count, I've sold most of my stake since it was bought with that assumption.
@TomPotter given that a lot of people were leaning towards SIDHE (due to smaller key sizes), its probably best that rollout is being incremental.
Transitioning is coming with costs, and most uses of encryption don't need to be resistant to being decrypted a decade from now.
Can you state specific algorithms that would have to be broken for this to resolve as YES?
@rpominov Excellent question friend!
For symmetric-key encryption, this would include algorithms like:
1. Advanced Encryption Standard (AES)
2. Triple Data Encryption Standard (3DES)
3. Blowfish
4. Twofish
On the asymmetric or public-key encryption side, the algorithms include:
1. RSA (Rivest–Shamir–Adleman)
2. DSA (Digital Signature Algorithm)
3. ECC (Elliptic-Curve Cryptography)
4. Diffie-Hellman key exchange
We can be arrogant and say, this cryptographic revolution with fundamentaly reduce all of the in use cryptography obsolete.
Or I think something that can replace RSA would be very significant and potentially cascading.
