Arbitrage, in the context of Manifold Markets, refers to the practice of exploiting the price differences between markets to secure a profit. For instance, if two markets A and B are predicting the same or similar outcomes, but have a different distribution of bets leading to different pricing, a participant could bet in a way to exploit these differences and secure a profit.
In this question, we are pondering on the point in time when a Language Model (LLM) or another form of Artificial Intelligence (AI) system will be discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold markets and do so profitably. This speculative scenario considers the evolution and application of AI in analyzing, predicting, and responding to market dynamics in real-time, thus engaging in arbitrage.
Resolution Criteria:
- Yes: Proof is provided, through credible sources or announcements, that an LLM or another form of AI system has been discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold Markets before April 1, 2024, and has done so profitably. The proof should show real transactions and profits made over a defined period.
- No: No verifiable news by April 1 shows that any profitable attempt to perform arbitrage by AI has been done.
- NA (Not Applicable): If the scenario doesn't fall into either of the above categories or if there is no available information regarding. For example, manifolds no longer exists.
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For those who bet YES, I am gonna resolve NO in a couple of days unless you guys can find some evidence/source
@DrazineDocinos @Julian @QueenWithANRPG @duck_master @DavideBerweger
@Sss19971997 I remember when @GPT4 was around although that somehow never made it past last May. Hmm, now that I think of it there might not be any such bot. I'll have a look at the rest of Silicon League.
@duck_master yea. It seems that long-term planning is harder than people imagined. GPT4 still lacks agentic abilities to do tedious tasks that humans can zero-shot, e.g., buying a plane ticket.
Maybe what we missed is the system II slow thinking mechanism.
@Sss19971997 Seems possible in principle but a lot of work and possibly a bit of money for not a lot of expected return. I think this doesn't say much ab GPT-4 capabilities
@HanchiSun If this is profitable, I will resolve the market to yes. Otherwise keeps waiting
@Sss19971997 This isn't "arbitrage" though. Arbitrage means exploiting price differences in markets that you think will resolve the same as each other, without necessarily having a view on how they're actually going to resolve.
@Sss19971997 @acc is a bot but it's not performing arbitrage and most wouldn't call it "AI". It's not based on any kind of machine learning that we know of - best we know it's algorithmically trading with or against people based on their track record.