Will an LLM or some form of AI system be found out to perform arbitrage on Manifolds and be profitable before Q2 2024?
29
510Ṁ1934
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO

Arbitrage, in the context of Manifold Markets, refers to the practice of exploiting the price differences between markets to secure a profit. For instance, if two markets A and B are predicting the same or similar outcomes, but have a different distribution of bets leading to different pricing, a participant could bet in a way to exploit these differences and secure a profit.

In this question, we are pondering on the point in time when a Language Model (LLM) or another form of Artificial Intelligence (AI) system will be discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold markets and do so profitably. This speculative scenario considers the evolution and application of AI in analyzing, predicting, and responding to market dynamics in real-time, thus engaging in arbitrage.

Resolution Criteria:

- Yes: Proof is provided, through credible sources or announcements, that an LLM or another form of AI system has been discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold Markets before April 1, 2024, and has done so profitably. The proof should show real transactions and profits made over a defined period.

- No: No verifiable news by April 1 shows that any profitable attempt to perform arbitrage by AI has been done.

- NA (Not Applicable): If the scenario doesn't fall into either of the above categories or if there is no available information regarding. For example, manifolds no longer exists.

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