🏅 Top traders

Resolving NO. Claude is a top-2 LLM

Should I resolve NO now, or should I wait for lmsys arena?

Right now the ranking is probably GPT4>Gemini Ultra>Mistral Large>Qwen, so unless clear evidence shows Claude 3 < Mistral Large, then the market will resolve to NO.

@Sss19971997 It's already in lmsys, lets just wait for a couple weeks, shall we?

I think since everybody bought NO, I will make it the way that favors you all.

If Anthropic got acquired, but remains functionally independent when publishing their top-3 model, I will resolve to NO. If it merged with another company, and jointly publish a top-3 model, it does not count.

So for example, if the market was about Deepmind, anything they did before 2022 will be considered done independently. After merging with Google Brain, then does not count (like for publication of PALM and Gemini)

Guys, what should I do if Anthropic gets acquired, and publish a top 3 model jointly with the buyer (say Google)

@Sss19971997 I would call "anthropic gets acquired by a competitor" an "anthropic is over" situation.

@equinoxhq What if they remained quite independent, like Deepmind before 2022?

@equinoxhq It would be weird to say Deepmind was over in 2016, right?

@Sss19971997 Hm. I think there's a choice to be made in that case, between the good thing of "make market resolution be clear so that market participants have something they can make a concrete prediction about" and the other good thing "make the question the closest you can to what you really want to know the answer to". Both are good things to aim for, because often the thing you want an answer to is also the thing other market participants will want an answer to. But sometimes, the thing you'd be most interested in knowing is poorly defined and hard to pin down.

In this particular case, saying "if Anthropic gets acquired, I will resolve YES" is very clear, but you might be quite interested in the case where they gain a big tech sponsor while remaining functionally independent. In which case, you're going to have to wade into the murky waters of "what exactly does it mean to be independent in this context, and how will I determine how independent Anthropic remains, and what if that changes over time?". You might even have to go the "In that case I will resolve partially dependent on my subjective assessment of Anthropic's level of independence when they release a new model" route. Which is OK, as long as you declare it up front so that anyone who wants to avoid markets where the creator is resolving things according to their opinion can do so.

A third option is, resolve this question YES (Anthropic is over) if they get acquired, and start a new question like "when, if ever, will Anthropic lose its independence from the company that acquired it?" in that case.

@equinoxhq I think a more important thing is to be fair to the first 10 traders in the market. Which interpretation did you have when you bet in this?

@Sss19971997 When I bet I didn't have that possibility in mind. I only considered how you should resolve in that case when you asked the question, and I don't have strong feelings either way. So you could make the choice that seems best to you, and I'd be fine with it.