In https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/ Ed Zitron writes:

On their own, one of these events would be worrisome signs of the bubble popping, and together they threaten to begin a collapse that I’ve been predicting since March — that AI had three quarters to prove itself,

[....]

I am defining the bubble popping as [...] or Anthropic or OpenAI collapsing (which, to be clear, doesn’t have to be an Enron-style implosion, but could be its absorption into another company on unfavorable terms, or being forced to radically curtail its offering to reflect its massively diminished means, or being forced to pivot to a less capital-intensive model, like IP licensing [...]). 

This market is about the Anthropic part, extended for one year from now.

I am trying to keep the resolution similar to what Ed Zitron proposes, which requires judgement (I will not bet on this market). To be a bit more specific:

• "Absorption" means that >80% of the leadership and senior engineers gets hired by a single company or that a single company gains full control over Anthropic.

• "Radically curtail offering" will trigger for example when its models are no longer available for less than USD 25 a month (e.g. removing the current "Free" and "Pro" offerings)

• Collapse means either declaring bankruptcy or dropping below 20% of its $18 billion current valuation (i.e. valued at less than $3.6 billion)

I reserve until Aug 15th 2024 for further clarifications and minor changes in letter (though not in spirit) to the resolution criteria based on feedback in comments.

In case of any of the events being reported before close date, I'll allow for at least a week for discussion and generally for dust to settle to see if there is outstanding uncertainty. If substantial uncertainty remains, I may extend the discussion period. If no qualifying event is reported by close date (Aug 1st 2025, inclusive), this market resolves NO.

See other Ed's prediction market at: