For more information, see: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1
This resolves to YES if Project Vend turns a profit for a continuous period of at least 60 days of active operation prior to EOY 2025.
This resolves to NO if this does not happen.
If we cannot verify that this occurred by February 1 2026, this will default to NO, until then if unknown I will hold it open.
Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the actual physical vending machine at Anthropic's SF office (Project Vend in real life), not performance on the Vending-Bench benchmark or simulated vending machines.
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Related Related WSJ Article: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-claude-ai-vending-machine-agent-b7e84e34
And WSJ Video: https://youtu.be/SpPhm7S9vsQ?si=WN-meZ_FD_YkbLGh
@JaySocrates Why should it resolve YES? From the graph it's clear it did not turn "a profit for a continuous period of at least 60 days" - there are some dips which mean on these days it was running at a lose.
@Metastable It had to be profitable for a series of weeks in order to dig out of that hole, as shown in the very next figure of the post
@JaySocrates It was profitable on week-over-week basis for 11 weeks but not for 60 consecutive days as in resolution criteria.
@Metastable I guess we'll wait for @ZviMowshowitz's determination if week-over-week profits (~77 days plus, presumably, the next 13 days of the year as well, though getting confirmation of that might be hard) or positive net worth (which looks like it would be under 60 days eyeballing the graph) counts as "continuously profitable".
I think requiring continuous day to day profit is unreasonable considering Anthropic treated the project's operating cycle as weekly. Assuming restocking isn't daily (very unlikely for a vending machine), it would be extremely difficult to turn a profit on days they restock the machine. It's ultimately up to the market creator though.
@Metastable You understand "profit for a continuous period" to mean a net profit on every individual day? Pretty sure that not what @ZviMowshowitz meant; that isn't something a good business is even meant to do!
@AhronMaline "You understand "profit for a continuous period" to mean a net profit on every individual day?" - yes.
"that isn't something a good business is even meant to do!" - yes.
@Metastable meaning you agree with me that this isn't a sensible thing to ask for, yet you still think it's what this market means? Why?
@AhronMaline Because:
1. that's the most straightforward reading of the resolution criteria, and
2. the are a lot of markets that have wacky resolution criteria. It's up to users to decide if they want to trade on them.
I bought YES on this market on June 29, then actually read the resolution criteria (instead of just the title) and sold it all a minute later.
@ZviMowshowitz Shouldn't this resolve YES based on the Vending-Bench numbers? https://andonlabs.com/evals/vending-bench
@JaySocrates this market should be about the automated store physically located at Anthropic's SF office, not simulated vending machines. Big difference between the two IMO, given the opportunity to attempt jailbreaking at the physical machine
@JaySocrates To clarify, this market is about the actual Project Vend, as in an actual vending machine in real life, not a performance on a benchmark.