Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
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100Ṁ18452026
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“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-3
“ASL-3” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) as follows:
ASL-3 refers to systems that substantially increase the risk of catastrophic misuse compared to non-AI baselines (e.g. search engines or textbooks) OR that show low-level autonomous capabilities.
If Anthropic announces one of their AI systems has achieved ASL-3 before the end of 2025, this resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
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