Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?
36
204
αΉ1.4kαΉ1k
2026
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to yes if >50% ownership of Manifold acquired by Kalshi or Polymarket or any of their subsidiaries before 1/1/2026
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The more I read https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating and https://manifold.markets/Joshua/good-pivot-bad-pivot-which-opinions the more I think the acquisition is likely to happen, especially given the recent growth Kalshi and Polymarket experienced will likely translate to a lot more cash to spend. Manifold is the perfect target given its unique user base. The leadership team's loss of Austin, who seemed to care the least about whether or not Manifold makes money, may result in the team bowing down to capitalism and end in a acquisition. Just my 2c
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