This market resolves to YES if Claude Sonnet 3.5 and 3.6 (i.e., “claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620” and “claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022”) models are unusable through the Anthropic API on October 23, 2025, one day after the announced retirement date (for reasons other than transient error). It resolves to NO if either or both models remain accessible through the API on that date for any reason.
Context: Anthropic announced on August 13 that these models would be deprecated and removed from the API on October 22, 2025. However, Sonnet 3.5 and 3.6 were both extremely popular, and they are very different models from Sonnet 4, with no trivial upgrade path for many uses, and many applications and individuals are still using the older model. It seems plausible that public pushback could delay their retirement.
See https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/model-deprecations for current planned dates.
1,000