This market resolves to YES if Claude Sonnet 3.5 and 3.6 (i.e., “claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620” and “claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022”) models are unusable through the Anthropic API on October 23, 2025, one day after the announced retirement date (for reasons other than transient error). It resolves to NO if either or both models remain accessible through the API on that date for any reason.
Context: Anthropic announced on August 13 that these models would be deprecated and removed from the API on October 22, 2025. However, Sonnet 3.5 and 3.6 were both extremely popular, and they are very different models from Sonnet 4, with no trivial upgrade path for many uses, and many applications and individuals are still using the older model. It seems plausible that public pushback could delay their retirement.
See https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/model-deprecations for current planned dates.
Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The deprecation date on Anthropic's documentation has changed from October 22, 2025 to October 29, 2025. The market will still resolve based on availability on October 23, 2025 (the original date one day after the initially announced retirement).
1,000The table of impending deprecations on https://docs.claude.com/en/docs/about-claude/model-deprecations appears to have changed to October 29, 2025.
@SorenBjornstad Will you be making a new version of the same market? "Company announces X, will they follow through?" is one of the very best market formats for Manifold.