README :)
Context
Haiku is going to be deprecated.
Sonnet is going to be the Haiku.
Opus is going to be the new sonnet.
And Fable the new premium Opus.
- An internet user, somewhere
Criteria
Resolves YES, if, before October 7:
Haiku doesn't appear anymore on the Claude web app
OR
no new Haiku is released (newer than Haiku 4.5)
Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving the market N/A due to confusion around criteria changes. The criteria were modified 4 minutes after creation (43 minutes before the first bet), but some traders may have bet based on the original criteria (Haiku disappearing from the web app only). The creator acknowledges the title may have caused confusion and is open to N/A if that is the general consensus.
1,000People are also trading
/notbayesian/claude-haiku-dying-in-3-months
Since a large share of the traded mana came from people who thought they were betting on something else, I'm resolving N/A. I've created a clearer replacement market.
@prismatic Yep, but according to the timestamps I apparently bet after the change. Which is weird because I only remember betting on the original criteria as first listed.
@prismatic Indeed you did, I see that in the trade log. @notbayesian I think that calls for an N/A unfortunately. The effect of the changed criteria is massive: probability goes from near-zero (imo) to being a market mostly about the date of the next Haiku release.
-> Created on Jul 7, 12:29 AM
-> Modified criteria on Jul 7, 12:33 AM (1 time)
-> 1st bet on Jul 7, 1:16:42 AM
-> prismatic bet on Jul 7, 1:27:34 AM
-> Xi Jinping bet on Jul 7, 2:14:53 AM
I did refresh the page before and after modifying the criteria, there was 1 unique viewer and the first bet came 43 minutes later. So probably not a manifold/caching bug?
The description changes after this are:
+"README" txt
+"OR - If no haiku is released " -> "OR - no new Haiku is released (newer than Haiku 4.5)" clarification doesn't change the criteria (they can't release something older)
So no, you guys bet 43mn+ after the criteria change (= adding "OR haiku release", 4mn after creation).
Most probably my confusing title/desc did confuse you guys, the blame is on me,
I'm happy to N/A if that's the general feeling, sorry for the inconvenience.
@notbayesian Hmm, okay you're right. Caching bug is still possible depending on how their system works. Can appear for some users but not others. And the viewer count is probably not accurate or could be delayed. I could be wrong, but I distinctly remember reading "doesn't appear anymore on the Claude web app". Or maybe I read it right after it was created, and then came back to bet later and didn't re-read the criteria.
Anyways, it's up to you but I didn't intend to bet on the new criteria and would be happy with an N/A and making a new market.
@xjp @prismatic Yep, resolving this to N/A. I'll give more thought to the title/desc before publishing next time ๐