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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
Aug 31
55%
chance

Anthropic's current flagship is Claude Opus 4.7, with Sonnet 4.6 from February 17, 2026. Claude 5 (Opus and Sonnet variants) is widely expected in Q2-Q3 2026 per industry analysts and prediction markets. As of April 29, 2026, no official announcement. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, Anthropic publicly releases Claude Opus 5 (or any model marketed as 'Opus 5' or 'Claude 5 Opus' regardless of suffix) — meaning the model is available to at least Pro/Max subscribers OR via the public API. RESOLVES NO if no such Opus 5 model is publicly released by the deadline. A staged rollout that reaches paying customers counts. Internal-only or red-team-only releases do NOT count. Sonnet 5 alone does NOT count — must specifically be the Opus tier.

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