Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
25
240แน€3930
resolved Mar 3
Resolved
YES

If OpenAI skips GPT-4.5, this resolves to N/A.

Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot, and NO if it does not.

Does not apply to any future versions that are also called "GPT 4.5-preview", just the first iteration to appear on the LLMSys leaderboard. If multiple appear at once (like Opus/Sonnet/Haiku), any of them count.

  • Update 2024-30-12 (PST): - If multiple models are tied for the #1 rank, the top spot will be determined based on ELO rankings. (AI summary of creator comment)

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absolute domination, resolving YES!

reposted

Scaling laws might be dead

@FergusArgyll scaling parameter count + reasoning is the way forward

@Bldrt maybe but take a second to notice, the scaling laws are dead, done, finished. Even though the arrow always pointed up. Even though all the smart people in AI labs thought they'll continue to AGI. The scaling laws are dead.

Now, that doesn't mean we won't reach AGI due to algorithmic innovations or reasoning or anything else. but it's worth noticing when you believe in something and it dies.

Multiple models can share number 1 rank in lmsys leaderboard, so does it still count if it shares the #1 rank with 2 or 3 other models? or does it visually have to show up at the top of the leaderboard?

@LuigiD tied for first count, based on ELO.

Sounds good

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