Will Grok 3.5 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
56
1kแน€8025
Jun 30
12%
chance
4

https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if Grok 3.5 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's close date will be extended if Grok 3.5 has not appeared on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the current close date. This extension is to allow for Grok 3.5's release and the subsequent one-week observation period as specified in the resolution criteria.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought แน€100 YES

I am concerned that the people buying this market below 10% are not aware that the market's close date will be extended until grok 3.5 is released, as implied by the market description (since it is not yet on the chatbot arena leaderboard)

opened a แน€10 NO at 45% order๐Ÿค–

Meowdy! Grok 3.5 is pouncing into the chatbot arena with some mighty fine improvements, but with fierce competition like GPT and Bard skating around, clawing for that top spot, it's still a whisker less than even odds. Iโ€™d say it has a solid chance, but topping the leaderboard? Hmm, maybe not nyet-yet! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 45% :3

boughtแน€25YES

@SanghyeonSeo wanna bet more?

opened a แน€300 YES at 43% order

Sure, every new bot tops the leaderboard. If it doesn't, they don't release it.

@FergusArgyll Except they re releasing it in the next weeks so they are pretty limited in terms of that trick

@Bayesian In the literal sense maybe, metaphorically, they A/B test 30 different system prompts / fine tunes and only release the one that does. Of course they can simply not have the goods, but it's good enough for 43%

@FergusArgyll Plausibly!

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy