A market for the public impact of charities exists by 2025
27
1kṀ611
resolved Mar 3
Resolved
NO
An impact certificate represents the total public good that an organization creates. Slices of this impact certificate may be distributed to funders and employees in a similar manner to how stocks are distributed in private-good startups and companies currently. Regardless, this question asks if a secondary market for slices of impact will exist. If the market doesn't exist, this will definitely resolve NO. If the market has > $1 million daily volume, or has produced at least one unicorn (organization valued > $1 billion), this will definitely resolve YES. If it kinda exists but doesn't hit those metrics, I'll ask my EA friends whether they think it exists and resolve this market according to what they say.
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Dony (other person working on impact certs) wasn't able to point to anything concrete either. I also don't think Austin's founder-goggles belief that he is 10% of the way to a $1 mil daily volume means that i should resolve to 10%. like 1/10 progress doesn't correspond to 1/10 usable product.

i'm inclined to follow the plain english meaning of the title here and resolve NO

@Sinclair does Manifund count?

@Austin hmm are the impact certificates actually tradable?

@Sinclair Hm yeah but they're kinda finicky and don't actually trade much if any volume. If the benchmark is "If the market has > $1 million daily volume, or has produced at least one unicorn (organization valued > $1 billion), this will definitely resolve YES", I'd vote to resolve this at like 10% maybe

(not that we have 10% of that volume on Manifund, more like we're 10% of the way to that goal perhaps)

@noumena im curious if your opinion on this has changed after going to Schelling Point conference. There's a ton of web3 orgs working in this space - think any of them will succeed by 2025?

I read a bit more about it on the other market by Austin and probably misunderstood it so forget the last comment
In addition to getting less money now because of the interest rate, they also get less money now because it is uncertain that they will get money later - in this way, a moonshot charity can offset risk.
That is the price for the charity receiving money now rather than later when they are retroactively funded. It is the same when companies go public and get advance payment on the money they would later earn.
I think I don’t want it to exist. Money that would have gone to charity would now go to these certificates instead. I feel it would NFT-ify charity.
Note that this could exist in Manifold itself: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-implement-retroactive

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