Will Manifold implement retroactive public goods funding by June 1?
48%
chance
May 21
M$744 bet
Alternatively called "Project Shares." The idea would be 1) to let people create & trade shares of a project in M$, and 2) pay out useful projects from a community pool. This lets creators of community initiatives to raise money for their work via startup-like equity funding. Vitalik describes this concept: https://medium.com/ethereum-optimism/retroactive-public-goods-funding-33c9b7d00f0c . I think it'd be super cool to test out on the Manifold infrastructure! # Rough sketch At any time: Create or trade on projects - Anyone can create a new “project”; their statement of claim for a public good; they are issued e.g. 10k shares. Example public goods: useful blog post; helpful comments; implementing a Manifold feature; creating and resolving a valuable market - Anyone can buy or sell their project shares on an open market Every month: An oracle (Philanthrobot?) pays out - Manifold sets aside e.g. M$ 400,000 - Each user can send their M$ towards which projects deserve funding this month - Money is matched via quadratic funding - Holders of the selected projects receive payouts proportional to their shares - Or: Selected projects gain a price floor See also: Impact Certificates: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yNn2o3kEhixZHkRga/certificates-of-impact
Austin

Austin bought M$120 of YES12 days ago

Alright now that I've recovered from COVID, time to make this happen.
NathanHelmBurger

Nathan bought M$5 of NO2 months ago

I think it probably won't happen in this time frame, but I think it's an interesting idea worth exploring at some point.
dreev

Daniel Reeves bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

I'm excited about experiments like this. Related: decision markets aka futarchy.
Austin

Austin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

@Gurkenglas I'm leaning no; I'm trying to use this market to assess whether doing some dev work to implement this would be a good idea. This market is about whether Manifold will specifically spend additional dev time between the creation of this market and June 1 to make this possible. (Let's say "significant dev time, e.g. 2 or more days of dev work") If someone convinces me a good version of retroactive public goods funding is already completely available through Manifold's current interface, I would resolve this market NO. I'm fairly skeptical of this though.
Gurkenglas

Gurkenglas bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

Credibly stating even their intent to do this should lead investors such as myself to send people mana in exchange for future retroactive funding I expect them to get. @Austin, would it already count as implemented if such retroactive funding futures trade at sufficiently high portions of their strike?
Gurkenglas

Gurkenglas bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

Taking interest rates into account, the sooner they reward, the less they need to pay out.
BayesianPhilosopher

Bayesian Philosopher bought M$20 of NO2 months ago

Would be cool to see happen at some point, but even if it does happen, I would be surprised if it's a high enough priority for the devs to do it that quickly.
M

M bought M$20 of NO2 months ago

sounds interesting but complex and I expect that there are more important things still, it would be interesting to check how it works
Gurkenglas

Gurkenglas bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

Then keep it simple and do just that part! Find people who did good in expectation of reward and reward them.
Austin

Austin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

That would be the second half of the proposal! (And the reason that you missed the description is because I edited it in just a few minutes ago.)
Gurkenglas

Gurkenglas sold M$20 of YES2 months ago

Oh, I somehow entirely failed to read the actual description! I thought you were asking whether Manifold should drop M$ on whoever they thought had in the past done something helpful to Manifold in expectation of getting that drop later. Shame on me.
Austin

Austin bought M$1 of NO2 months ago

Some reasons NOT to implement this: - Dev time could be spent more usefully on other tasks - Users might not actually want to use this - Financializing public goods may kill intrinsic motivation by adding extrinsic motivation? (Counterpoint: "Can economic systems serve intrinsic motivations" from https://lostgarden.home.blog/2021/12/12/value-chains/ ) - Retroactive public goods funding is much more psychologically complicated compared to e.g. a simple monthly bounties system - Not clear whether implementing this for M$ or real USD would be more effective (at which point, this is maybe a separate project from Manifold)
Austin

Austin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

Haha the best way to incentivize this is to comment with why you'd like this and what you'd do with the capabilities! Another good way is to offer to commit to being a funder for this feature. Buying either YES or NO still indicates some amount of interest (as opposed to apathy), and is helpful for me to calibrate.
Gurkenglas

Gurkenglas bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

Do I incentivize this by voting YES or NO?