Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

This question is about the total amount of money-moved (to fund the initial altruistic projects, not subsequent transactions among impact-cert traders) by "impact markets" like Manifund, the AI Safety Givewiki, etc, between now (Nov 2023) and the end of the 2020s. In January 2030, I'll investigate the total amount of money allocated to altruistic projects by impact-markets, and resolve YES if it exceeds $10,000,000.

See this ACX blog post for more information about how impact markets have worked in small-scale trials.

In order to count, impact-market projects DO have to be altruistic/charitable endeavors, but DON'T have to be particularly EA-aligned -- if impact certificates become a popular way for crypto bros to show how much money they've donated to save cute puppies from rare diseases, or if they take off as a gofundme-style way for random local charities to raise money from their supporters, that's fine too.

For markets about other EA cause-area-candidates (like approval voting and the Patient Philanthropy Fund), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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Manifund alone has already distributed about $4M in money total and has been around for less than a year; at this rate they'll easily hit $10M distributed next year or the year thereafter.

@duck_master wait, does manifold exclusively do it in the form of impact markets though?

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