Will OpenAI solve all Erdös problems by 2030?
12
1kṀ3893
2029
6%
chance

This market resolves YES if an OpenAI model solves, provides complete proofs or finds proofs for all the remaining unsolved Erdős problems by December 31, 2029.

Resolution: Market resolves YES if credible mathematical sources (peer-reviewed papers, Fields medalists, or the Erdős Problems database maintainers) confirm that an OpenAI model has independently derived complete proofs for all the remaining Erdős problems so that there won't be an open problem anymore. Finding existing solutions in literature counts as solving as long as the problems were marked open.

Sources for verification:

  • Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Finding existing solutions in literature does NOT count as OpenAI solving the problem. OpenAI must independently derive the proofs, not just locate them in existing literature.

  • Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Finding existing solutions in literature DOES count as OpenAI solving the problem. The market resolves YES if OpenAI's model finds a solution to problems marked as open on the website, whether the model searches for existing solutions or creates new proofs.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

If it’s in the literature, then it seems to count as solved here, so what does saying the OpenAI solves them mean? Harmonic just solved two- how do they count for this question?

@Mactuary i don't understand, in what literature should the problems that openai solves be?

@SimoneRomeo I meant this sentence “Finding existing solutions in literature counts as solving as long as the problems were marked open.”

If an open question is solved by anyone, it’ll end up in the literature and OpenAI would presumably be able to find it.

@Mactuary got it. Yes it counts. The market is about whether the problems were marked open on the website and then OpenAI's model found a solution (either searched for them or solves them)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy