Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?
Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI
The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI
The government takes action against OpenAI
OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy
The scandal is forgotten without major change
OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy


A while ago, the OpenAI board tried to remove Sam Altman from leading OpenAI. They could not tell us why, and it lead to a backlash of "OpenAI is nothing without its people", where the employees of OpenAI threatened with walking out on it. This lead to the decision being reversed.

It has now come out that OpenAI threatens employees with aggressive NDAs to ensure that it doesn't get critiqued. Furthermore, partly because of this, and partly because of general arrogance from Sam Altman, I see the tide turning against OpenAI.

In my view, AI companies will nearly determine the future of humanity, and the main reason for such NDAs is an adversarial stance towards the public. If possible, it seems rational for the public to destroy adversaries who credibly aspire to determine their future, so I think this could actually grow to a significant backlash against OpenAI.

Resolution criteria

Idk, I'm too busy to write up some dubious formalization right now, so let's say vibes

I may choose to ignore fluctuations shorter than 1 year, like if Sam Altman is removed from CEO but comes back again.

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The government takes action against OpenAI

Does action for reasons unrelated to NDAs count?

but only if it's significant to the issue of NDAs; like arbitrary regulation wouldn't count, though simply destroying OpenAI does.

Ok I did a poll of normies and they don't really care about this so I guess nothing will happen. Probably.