By the year 2100, will humanity have developed a simulation of the universe detailed enough to facilitate the understanding of consciousness emergence?
This market invites participants to place their bets on the probability of achieving a monumental feat in computational and cognitive science.
The question at hand is not merely about simulating galaxies or ecosystems but creating a virtual cosmos where conditions are ripe for the natural emergence of consciousness.
Outcome Criteria: The market will resolve positively if, by December 31, 2100, there is verifiable evidence of a simulation designed and recognized by the scientific community as capable of detailed universe emulation with conditions conducive to the natural emergence of consciousness. Verification can come from peer-reviewed scientific publications, official statements by leading global scientific organizations, or demonstrable, publicly accessible evidence of the simulation's operation and objectives.
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Why use an entire simulated universe for this? It seems like you could simulate the emergence of consciousness by running one evolving mind on silicon and giving it inputs from our actual universe. Much less computation required.
I also don't think we have a good enough idea of what consciousness is and why it happens in some conditions and not others to say how detailed the sensory inputs would have to be, in order for consciousness to arise, which very much bears on the question "will we have enough computational capacity to simulate an entire universe in that level of detail by 2100?". But it seems like we got and continue to get very little input from the vast majority of the universe, into our process of creating consciousness. Like, we didn't even know that other galaxies existed until 1924, and it seems unlikely that the little twinkly lights in the sky had much to do with us developing consciousness, they likely could be omitted from a simulation that had the objective of understanding how consciousness arises. Probably you could simulate the emergence of consciousness in a simulated environment the size of a small island, or maybe a petri dish, but certainly a single planet would do it.
@equinoxhq I'll answer to why I'd simulate the whole universe. You probably know about the Hypothesis that our universe is itself a simulation. If it is, what would be a way to figure it out? I'd create a new simulation of the universe, run it, and expect that it would become conscious, realize that it's a simulation and try to establish a communication with us. This is a lot of science fiction right now, but if we achieve AGI within the next couple of decades l, I don't see why we shouldn't try