Human whole brain emulation before 2100?
16
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2100
37%
chance

This market resolves Yes if, by the beginning of 2100, at least 1 person has used whole brain emulation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) successfully (defined arbitrarily by >75% consensus of philosophers of mind that psychological continuity and identity is preserved).

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Why on earth would you regard philosophers of mind as having any relevance to resolving question like this? They are quacks who rely on intuition rather than data. They can't even agree that dualism is false.

The human brain is one of the most complicated organ nature has ever created, to this day no computer or technology has been able to match its intelligence. Many would argue that with the development of Artificial Intelligence and delicate research technologies in neurosciences, in the next 77 years human whole brain emulation will be possible or would have happened. With me it is a fact that the human brain has an ability to learn therefore, evolving and developing to be much smarter and more complex. It will take more than 77 years or never to develop software that can imitate an organ made of 100 billion nerve cells and many more contact points between them, from psychology to linguistics to neuroscience and everything in between only the surface has been scratched to comprehended the brain.