Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2050 a formal declaration meeting all the conditions below is publicly released, stating that computers should be considered conscious.

Definition – “signatory”

A signatory is an individual who satisfies all of criteria 3 – 5. Only such qualified experts may sign.

1. Official document – The declaration must be an official, publicly released document from a reputable institution or be published in a peer-reviewed science journal.

2. Number of signatories – The declaration must be signed by at least 10 signatories (as defined above). No unqualified signatures are permitted.

3. Relevant PhD – Each signatory must hold a PhD from an accredited university in a relevant field (e.g., neuroscience, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, philosophy of mind).

4. Professional post – Each signatory must hold a current faculty or research position at an accredited university, research institution, or reputable company.

5. Peer-reviewed research – Each signatory must have a track record of published, peer-reviewed scientific research (which may include computer-science publications).

• Update 2025-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding criterion 2 ('No unqualified signatures are permitted') and the definition of 'signatory':

  • A declaration is considered valid if it has at least 10 signatories who individually meet all qualification criteria (as outlined in points 3-5 of the market description).

  • The presence of additional signatories on the same document who do not meet these qualification criteria will not invalidate the declaration, provided this minimum of 10 qualified signatories is met.