Will China alone install over 8713 GW in 2030?

210Ṁ1902

2031

chance

ALL

I created a market some time ago, where I showed some projections on the growth of solar panel installations.

Assuming that the global solar panel installations will grow at a compound 50% rate, we'll install over 8713 GW in 2030. At the time of writing, it seems that most users disagree with this bull scenario.

However, China alone installed 217 GW of solar n 2023, shattered its previous record of 87.4 GW from 2022, and it installed more panels than the solar capacity of the U.S. throughout their whole history (175.2 GW).

Source

My assumption is that China by itself has the capability to overachieve the global bull target, and that indeed it will.

Let's bet on this :)

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bought Ṁ125 NO

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/01/21/china-hits-277-17-gw-of-new-pv-installations-in-2024/

277GW in 2024, up from 217GW, I don't see how China can get back on track in 6 years.

China hits 277.17 GW of new PV installations in 2024

China's cumulative installed solar capacity hit 886.66 GW at the end of 2024, with 277.17 GW of new annual installations, up 45.48% year on year. The deployment surge exceeded forecasts, setting a new historical record for PV installations.

They are humming along with 45.74 GW in the past 3 months (+36% yoy) but still a very long shot.

@figo thanks for the update!

bought Ṁ250 NO

I don't know how you plan on getting there but the Chinese PV industry is not on your side

And neither is Bloomberg NEF

@figo forecasters each year predict the end of an exponential trend and each year they are wrong. Next year solar panels will be the cheapest they've ever been, solar batteries will be the cheapest they've ever been. Let's see if the forecast will actually be correct.

@SimoneRomeo Usually they have growth taper down over 3-5 years to some PGR at 3%. Here they see it decrease or stabilize next year. I don't have privileged info but I don't see how they could be that far off.

Also, prices go down but capture prices go down even faster these days. Sure, batteries (and BEV) will prevent them from being consistently zero or negative but it's not like the dynamics is lowering costs with stable revenue. In many, advantageous places purchase prices of solar are being revisited (just yesterday in Indonesia).

Let's see how it plays out, but you don't seem to believe 5% is too low otherwise you would have placed some manas there ;)

@figo oh, I will surely place Manas here. Just I don't have anything to invest and there are a lot of interesting markets. I'll invest till it reaches 30% at least.

There's no privileged info besides do you believe in exponential growth or not? Solar panels are the cheapest form of energy. Do you believe China will stop investing in the cheapest form of Energy? Do you believe there's a limit to how much energy china will want? Will growth decrease now that prices are cheaper, that renewables are a key focus sector for the CPC and that robotics and AI are supporting manufacturing and production of more efficient modules? Will China mind to have almost free energy? Check Tony Seba, The disruption of energy 16:31 for thoughts on this:

https://youtu.be/fsnkPLkf1ao?si=jq50TKZUX6rDVu38

Or check his videos from 10 years ago and evaluate which predictions were true and which were not.