Attention: read below:

The world installed around 510 GW of photovoltaic panels in 2023.

The installations of photovoltaics globally grew historically at 26% compound rate. Wikipedia

However the growth from 2022 to 2023 was around 50%: Guardian

This is what a 26% compound growth looks like:

2024: 642.6 GW

2025: 809.68 GW

2026: 1020.19 GW

2027: 1285.44 GW

2028: 1619.66 GW

2029: 2040.77 GW

2030: 2571.37 GW

This is what a 50% compound growth looks like:

2024: 765 GW

2025: 1147.5 GW

2026: 1721.25 GW

2027: 2581.88 GW

2028: 3872.81 GW

2029: 5809.22 GW

2030: 8713.83 GW

EDIT:

I realized that the Guardian article that I quoted did not report solar panels installations but total renewable energy additions. I am really sorry of the confusion and the impact it has on the forecasts written above.

These are the latest data that I found:

Solar panel installations in 2023: 444 GW source (Not 510 as written above)

Solar panel installations in 2022: 252 GW source

This represents a YoY growth of around 76% (not 50% as quoted above)

These appear to me as the most accurate and recent data, even if there are small differences across various sources.

For the purpose of this market, the question remains unchanged even if the data used to reach those figures is inaccurate.

• Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves to YES if global photovoltaic installations reach 8713 GW by 2030.

  • The 510 GW in 2023 figure, referenced in the market question as a starting point for growth, is not relevant for determining the resolution. The focus is solely on the 2030 target.

  • The data for 2030 installations will be determined using figures from:

  • IRENA

  • BNEF

  • IEA

  • The creator will aim to use a composite of these sources. Should there be significant discrepancies between the sources, one source will be selected, and this choice will be communicated by the creator at a later time.