Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?
35
248
1k
2030
26%
chance

This market is an opportunity to speculate on the future of longevity science and the potential for revolutionary advancements in therapeutic treatments that extend the healthspan of individuals.

The market is connected to the XPRIZE Healthspan competition. The outcome of the market will be considered 'true' if any company, whether part of the XPRIZE healthspan competition or not, successfully develops a therapeutic treatment that meets the following criteria by 2030:

  • Muscle Function Restoration: The treatment must demonstrably restore muscle function, reversing the effects of aging and contributing to a more youthful physical state.

  • Cognitive Function Improvement: The treatment should significantly enhance cognitive abilities, reflecting rejuvenation in mental capacities and brain health.

  • Immune System Enhancement: A key aspect of the treatment should involve bolstering the immune system, reversing at least a decade worth of age-related decline.

In the scenario where a company achieves these milestones outside the XPRIZE framework, a poll will be conducted to assess if the criteria match those of the XPRIZE Healthspan competition.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I like that this one is delegating the measurement to an actual contest. But i think 2030 is too soon. Maybe you can create alternate questions for like 2035, 2040 etc.

@ftkurt There are a few clinical trials already and scientist have been speeding up and reversing aging on mice quite freely. I have set 2030 because that's the deadline for the XPRIZE. It seems crazy I know. I'll buy yes when the price goes down enough :)

predicts NO

@SimoneRomeo Thats bummer. But i kinda feel like if no ones wins they will create a followup contest.

@ftkurt for sure! The main person behind it is Peter Diamandis. He won't stop financing longevity till he finds a cure, or he dies. Hopefully the first

predicts NO

@SimoneRomeo Googling niw how old he is. Lol

@ftkurt I guess it depends if you ask legal age or biological age 😜😜

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