Measurement check: a gain of more than 10 years has to be observed somewhere before this closes in December 2044. Period life expectancy (US: 79.0 in 2024, CDC) moves only as deaths actually fall, and a randomized trial started today in 65-year-olds reaches its median-survival readout around 2047, after the deadline. So within the window the human evidence can only be surrogate markers or short-run mortality differences, while the lifespan trials that can finish inside it are in dogs: TRIAD (rapamycin, NIH-funded through 2029) and Loyal's STAY study report around 2029 to 2031, because a dog enrolled at 8 reaches median survival in about 4.6 years. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

Why the path to human longevity runs through dogs

Computed from the cited life tables and trials: a lifespan answer takes 4.6 years in dogs and 21 in people; dogs share our environment and diseases, lifespan has already been extended in dogs, and a regulator has accepted lifespan extension as an indication for dog drugs.

@w0lph very interesting point if the report has clear evindence that the same result will apply to humans with the same drugs I am open to closing this with yes

Might be difficult to map single discoveries to increases in life expectancy