Will Dr. Nag manage to create a longevity vaccine by the end of 2030?

Question

Stanford’s Dr. Ronjon Nag is utilizing AI and drugs already approved by the FDA to develop a vaccine for aging by the end of 2030.

Instead of treating each disease as a separate process, he wants to confront multiple age-related diseases like dementia and diabetes at once by targeting common underlying cellular processes. He has identified senescent cell elimination, mitochondrial enhancement, and cellular reprogramming as ways to address such common underlying age-related disease cellular processes.

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This market resolves true if Dr. Nag is among the winners of the XPrize or if he develops a longevity intervention that meets the XPrize criteria, but outside the competition.

For more info about the Xprize competition and specific resolution criteria, check this other market:

https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-any-company-successfully-devel?r=U2ltb25lUm9tZW8

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (9 traders, as of Apr 24, 2024).