If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ255Ṁ276

2030

ALL

1.8%

Metformin

22%

Calorie restriction

10%

Rapamycin

67%

Other

Resolves according to the intervention in the study that causes this market to resolve YES, if it resolves YES, and N/A otherwise.

Longevity

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Candidate for the "Other" bucket: SELECT already reported lower all-cause mortality on semaglutide (4.3% versus 5.2%, hazard ratio 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.93) in 17,604 overweight adults with cardiovascular disease, though as a secondary endpoint in a disease population, so whether it counts depends on how the parent market reads "increase human lifespan". Rapamycin's only completed human randomized trial, PEARL (2025), missed its primary endpoint and had no mortality power; its real lifespan test is the dog trial TRIAD, which reads out around 2029 to 2031, after this market closes. Metformin's TAME has never enrolled. TRIAD record with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/triad-rapamycin.html

Test of Rapamycin in Aging Dogs (TRIAD): canine aging trial registry record

TRIAD is a parallel-group, double-masked, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial that will test whether rapamycin prolongs lifespan and improves healthspan metrics in healthy, middle-aged, large-breed dogs recruited from Dog Aging Project participants. The hypothesis is that a one-year co

How exactly will 'calorie restriction' resolve- I think 'eating less calories' would measurably increase lifespan if the whole US population did it, because a lot of it is obese?

10k no limit on rapamycin 1 day only

How much an improvement do you need? E.g. would statins qualify if they weren't already known?

@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)

If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.