If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?

255Ṁ276

2030

ALL

1.8%

Metformin

22%

Calorie restriction

10%

Rapamycin

67%

Other

Resolves according to the intervention in the study that causes this market to resolve YES, if it resolves YES, and N/A otherwise.

Longevity

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How exactly will 'calorie restriction' resolve- I think 'eating less calories' would measurably increase lifespan if the whole US population did it, because a lot of it is obese?

10k no limit on rapamycin 1 day only

How much an improvement do you need? E.g. would statins qualify if they weren't already known?

@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)

If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.