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If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
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27%
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11%
Rapamycin
59%
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@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)
If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.
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Related questions
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
42% chance
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?
49% chance
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
34% chance
Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?
25% chance
By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
12% chance
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
29% chance
Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?
51% chance
Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030?
59% chance
By 2060, will there be a cure to aging?
41% chance