
If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
7
255Ṁ2762030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.8%
Metformin
22%
Calorie restriction
10%
Rapamycin
67%
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@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)
If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.
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