Update - this market has been added to the Manifold showcase and the Manifold team have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the market.

This means that there's a lot of money to be made if the current odds are wrong, or to whoever is the first to realise that events are changing the odds. It also means that you can make much bigger bets without moving the odds by as much!

Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.

At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see /jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised

This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc ‌

If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.

If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.

If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of June, this market resolves to YES.