Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?
189
118k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.

At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see /jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised

This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc

(Manifold have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the June market as part of adding it to the Manifold showcase so there's a big profit to be made there if you think that the odds are wrong!)

If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.

If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.

If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of May, this market resolves to YES.


Update 31st May - just to clarify a couple of points which have been discussed in the comments:

  • "By the end of May" means before the end of 31st May, Washington DC time. So if the bill currently being discussed is passed by the House and Senate and is signed into law by the President by 23:59 on 31st May, this would resolve to YES.

  • Under the current plan, the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 2025 (rather than being raised to a specific figure) as part of Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. This would count as being "raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity)" as per the wording of this market.

I've also put up a few markets on what happens next with the Fiscal Responsibility Act:

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-2d2c27b34f65

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-6160f1d68aba

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-ee0f36977d4f

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-764c416156e8

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"In the deal reached on Sunday, they have not raised the limit to a certain level, but suspended it entirely until 2025."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65744615

Is that suspension rather than raising the limit?

Does it fall into

"If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it."

It doesn't really seem the same as either abolishing it or ignoring it.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles Yes - a suspension where the government can borrow above the current debt limit absolutely counts.

If they pass this and the debt limit is suspended/abolished for two years then this resolves to YES.

predicted NO

@SimonGrayson Essentially debt limit becomes temporarily infinite

predicted YES

it's already over at this point; there's not enough time for it to move through the house and the senate by the end of wednesday. even a 6% chance is much too high. I'm selling everything and accepting the big loss 😔

predicted NO

This market is predicting <10% chance that they vote & pass it on Wednesday? I'll take those odds

31st of May conclusion

predicted NO

@Gen you are forgetting the Senate which will take another day. Plus there is no urgency for June 1 deadline anymore.

@BTE Can they vote on it on the same day?

This seems like the kind of thing they should get a move on with rather than waiting until the next day…

predicted NO

@SimonGrayson They won't because the Senators will each want to have their chance to speak on the floor excoriating the lower house blah blah blah. Liberal democrats could still kill this compromise in the House. Unless there is a hard deadline of the end of May it is not happening that fast. June 5th gives them plenty of time to put on a show.

predicted NO

@BTE also, Dark Brandom doesn't have to sign it into law until May 31st. He may have other stuff to do and wait until Yellen is yelling that she has no money

predicted NO

@Gen At least one Senator is planning on delaying it with procedural hurdles.

Nearly impossible for this to make it through the Senate in less than 2 days.

predicted NO

@MP https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1664753620464574466?t=Ta8_qlt6oe_fon5DGm2AKA&s=19

Literally what I said. Dark Brandon is taking his time to sign the Fiscal Responsável Act of 2023. Even if congress was super quick, in the absence of the X Date, nothing guaranteed the debt ceiling would be raised.

@ShadowyZephyr McCarthy has pledged 72 hours until the House votes, which gives only a day for it to be passed, pass the Senate, and be signed into law.

Their work is far from done. McCarthy has vowed to give House members 72 hours to read the legislation before bringing it to the floor for a vote. That will test whether enough moderate members support the compromises in the bill to overcome opposition from both hard-right Republicans and progressive Democrats.

Then it will need to pass the Senate, where it will need at least nine Republican votes to succeed. There are multiple opportunities in each chamber along the way to slow down the process.

@Gabrielle Hmm, actually, IDK, if the date of default is June 1 then it will push through, but if it's June 5, who knows...

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, I think they would rush it through if June 1 were the real deadline, but McCarthy has to worry about being removed from being Speaker, since just one Republican’s vote can do it. So there will probably be enough posturing to make it get closer to the deadline than the end of May.

@Gabrielle It’s not happening in May. Don’t forget about the day + it will take the Senate to vote on it.

predicted YES

1 in 5 seems about right at this point, idk. I'm in it till the end

Janet almost rug pulled me. Luckly I was in front of the terminal when this news hit the tape and opened MM to zero my position.

Kudos to @jack that was pounding the table in a June 6th X-Date

My trades are not registering correctly or aren't moving the probability at all.

predicted NO

@BTE even that will be pushed back if need me. The best experts on this are saying the govt likely has until August.

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