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@ChristopherRandles Yes - a suspension where the government can borrow above the current debt limit absolutely counts.

If they pass this and the debt limit is suspended/abolished for two years then this resolves to YES.

@SimonGrayson Essentially debt limit becomes temporarily infinite

@Gen you are forgetting the Senate which will take another day. Plus there is no urgency for June 1 deadline anymore.

@BTE Can they vote on it on the same day?

This seems like the kind of thing they should get a move on with rather than waiting until the next day…

@SimonGrayson They won't because the Senators will each want to have their chance to speak on the floor excoriating the lower house blah blah blah. Liberal democrats could still kill this compromise in the House. Unless there is a hard deadline of the end of May it is not happening that fast. June 5th gives them plenty of time to put on a show.

@BTE also, Dark Brandom doesn't have to sign it into law until May 31st. He may have other stuff to do and wait until Yellen is yelling that she has no money

@Gen At least one Senator is planning on delaying it with procedural hurdles.

Nearly impossible for this to make it through the Senate in less than 2 days.

@MP https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1664753620464574466?t=Ta8_qlt6oe_fon5DGm2AKA&s=19

Literally what I said. Dark Brandon is taking his time to sign the Fiscal Responsável Act of 2023. Even if congress was super quick, in the absence of the X Date, nothing guaranteed the debt ceiling would be raised.

@ShadowyZephyr McCarthy has pledged 72 hours until the House votes, which gives only a day for it to be passed, pass the Senate, and be signed into law.

Their work is far from done. McCarthy has vowed to give House members 72 hours to read the legislation before bringing it to the floor for a vote. That will test whether enough moderate members support the compromises in the bill to overcome opposition from both hard-right Republicans and progressive Democrats.

Then it will need to pass the Senate, where it will need at least nine Republican votes to succeed. There are multiple opportunities in each chamber along the way to slow down the process.

@Gabrielle Hmm, actually, IDK, if the date of default is June 1 then it will push through, but if it's June 5, who knows...

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, I think they would rush it through if June 1 were the real deadline, but McCarthy has to worry about being removed from being Speaker, since just one Republican’s vote can do it. So there will probably be enough posturing to make it get closer to the deadline than the end of May.

@Gabrielle It’s not happening in May. Don’t forget about the day + it will take the Senate to vote on it.

@BTE even that will be pushed back if need me. The best experts on this are saying the govt likely has until August.

@belikewater I don't think that's true, I would bet against that. I opened a question for it (actually two, one conditional and one not):

@belikewater what is our definition of default? Misses a payment on debt issued correct? That won't happen, ever. If the debt ceiling isn't raised the national budget simply must come into balance. The govt is well prepared for this and it's public info their plan.

@jack In my comment, I wrote, "For the US to avoid default by raising the debt ceiling, this pretty much has to get done by May 31." Of course, there are other paths that could be pursued to avoid default. I have several trades placed on different potential outcomes; this is my trade betting on what I currently think is the most likely outcome, which is that the debt ceiling is raised in time to prevent default.

@jack It's actually surprising to me that this market stayed under 50% for so long and that it's still only at a 2/3 probability.

I know, but I highly doubt that the default will be avoided by a different path, as per https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-raise-the-debt-ceiling. I didn't think it was worth opening joint/conditional markets on it since it's already so low.

Will the US avoid default by raising the debt ceiling?

91% chance. The US has already hit the debt ceiling in Jan 2023 and the Treasury department is using accounting maneuvers to keep paying the bills with so-called “extraordinary measures” (1), which are expected to run out in the summer. At that point, if no action has been taken, the US government w…

@belikewater This market is pretty well agreeing with real-money prediction markets https://kalshi.com/markets/dceil/debt-ceiling-hike, which have basically stayed in the 40-50% range in the last 2 weeks.

@jack The only way I can reconcile these 2 markets is with the idea that the markets must think that the debt ceiling must be raised by sometime ON June 1 for default to be avoided by raising the debt ceiling. My thinking has been that the debt ceiling must be raised BEFORE June 1 for default to be avoided by that mechanism. Perhaps I'm wrong.

@belikewater The markets don't think that the deadline is June 1 (none of the ones I've been watching anyway, do you have a link?). A lot of media reporting has been misstating that deadline. Yellen has consistently been using the wording of likely early June, and potentially as early as June 1. Here is her last update from May 22 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1497

With an additional week of information now available, I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1. 

I highly doubt the X-date will come on June 1 (<5%), but even a few percent chance of catastrophe is really bad and should be avoided, obviously. I expect >50% chance by June 15.

There was more discussion about this in https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108.

Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter to Congressional Leadership on the Debt Limit

Today, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen sent a letter to all members of Congressional leadership regarding the debt limit. The full text of the letter can be found here and is available below. The Honorable Kevin McCarthy Speaker U.S. House of Representatives Washington…

@jack I was interpreting that "as early as June 1" as the date everyone would want to avoid. In any case, the question is now moot, as Yellen has come out and said it's June 5.

@SimonGrayson holding YES here seems a no-brainer, the volatility will give us the chance to exit at higher odds

@MP lol, 7% already