Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.

At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see /jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised

This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc

(Manifold have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the June market as part of adding it to the Manifold showcase so there's a big profit to be made there if you think that the odds are wrong!)

If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.

If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.

If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of May, this market resolves to YES.

Update 31st May - just to clarify a couple of points which have been discussed in the comments:

• "By the end of May" means before the end of 31st May, Washington DC time. So if the bill currently being discussed is passed by the House and Senate and is signed into law by the President by 23:59 on 31st May, this would resolve to YES.

• Under the current plan, the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 2025 (rather than being raised to a specific figure) as part of Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. This would count as being "raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity)" as per the wording of this market.

I've also put up a few markets on what happens next with the Fiscal Responsibility Act:

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-2d2c27b34f65

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-6160f1d68aba

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-ee0f36977d4f

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-764c416156e8