Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see /jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of November, this market resolves to YES.
1,000
3.00Biden signs debt ceiling deal into law, averting historic default
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/03/politics/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-deal/index.html
Biden Could Sign Debt-Limit Bill as Soon as Saturday
Treasury signals weekend signing won’t disrupt payments
Measure is in process of being formally delivered to president