Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 10?
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resolved Jun 3
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 10, otherwise NO.

Notes:

  • Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES.

  • Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults and then raises the debt ceiling aftewards before the question deadline, that still counts as YES.

  • This question uses Eastern time.

Related questions:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

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predictedYES

Biden Could Sign Debt-Limit Bill as Soon as Saturday

  • Treasury signals weekend signing won’t disrupt payments

  • Measure is in process of being formally delivered to president

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/biden-could-sign-debt-bill-as-soon-as-saturday-white-house-says#xj4y7vzkg

The Senate will hold 11 amendment votes, 10R 1D each vote 10 mins. Afterwards a vote to pass will occur.

Schumer: "I am pleased -- so pleased -- to announce that both sides have just locked in an agreement that enables the Senate to pass legislation tonight, avoiding default.. America can breath a sigh of relief."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXQmu3jzDf4

predictedYES

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have made it clear they want to move ahead with a vote on the bill as early as Thursday, but would need an agreement from all 100 senators to do so. In the Senate, any one lawmaker can delay a swift vote.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/politics/senate-vote-debt-limit-latest/index.html

predictedYES

Once the Senate passes the measure, it can be sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law.

predictedYES

House Has Adjourned

predictedYES

The Bill Has Passed The House "On Motion To Suspend The Rules And Pass, As Amended"

predictedYES

https://www.c-span.org/networks/

THE VOTE IN THE HOUSE ON RULES FOR DEBATE HAS STARTED

predictedYES

The House approves the rule for debate on the debt limit bill 241-187, with 52 Democrats supporting it and 29 Republicans opposing it. A vote on the bipartisan measure is expected later tonight at 7:15pm ET.

predictedYES

Final Vote In The House Possibly Delayed Until 8:30pm ET

predictedYES

Progressive Dems & Freedom Caucus GOP members will vote NO.

However there are clear indications from both sides that they have enough votes for it to pass the House this evening when they vote.

McCarthy has stated publicly and privately that this bill will 100% become a law.

The debt ceiling will be effectively be suspended until Jan 1st 2025. This leaves the next negotiation to after the next presidential race.

predictedYES

Passed the first stage, The Rules Committee.

Debt ceiling bill clears key hurdle in the House, teeing up final vote

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/30/debt-ceiling-deal-updates.html?__source=androidappshare

Word on the street is it will pass Congress & Senate and be on Bidens Desk to sign on Monday June 5th 2023.

The only hold up are those in the House Freedom Caucus, but by my count, low end being 12 members, high end being 48 members, the bill would still pass.

218 Votes are needed to pass the House.

There are 213 Democrats and 222 Republicans. You only need 5 republicans to vote YES.

The Freedom Caucus members will have the loudest voice in media/news saying no no no no, but their votes are not needed for it to pass the House.

predictedYES

My Guess would be 192 Dem YES + 157 Rep YES = 349 ; This 350 vote market should see good action!

predictedYES

My revised prediction is: 320 YES / 104 NO / 11 Abstain

Passes the House.

predictedYES

Unrelated, but how do you embed markets like that? I only know how to display the bigger embedding style that shows the whole market graph.

predictedYES

@WinstonOswaldDrummond Click "add market" and then select multiple markets.

predictedNO

@jack Oh so it just happens automatically once you add multiple markets, and there's no way to do it for just one market?

predictedYES
predictedYES
predictedNO

@jack Thanks!

predictedNO

@BTE How do you do those ones?

predictedYES

@WinstonOswaldDrummond Start with “%”

predictedNO

@BTE Awesome, thank you.

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