Background. According to FRED, the US's public debt was around 120.7% of its GDP in Q3 2024. Resolution criteria. This market resolves YES if FRED reports that that the US's Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product exceeds 125.00000% in Q4 2025. Otherwise, the market resolves NO. Note that this measure includes only federal debt, not state or local debt. For more information on the series, see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S The market will resolve once the FRED has posted the value for Q4 2025. In the extremely unlikely event that FRED has not posted this value by the market's resolution, the market will resolve N/A.

No — resolved on Mar 5, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

Will the US’s public debt exceed 125% of its GDP by Q4 2025?

Ṁ1kṀ11k

resolved Mar 5

Resolved

ALL

Background. According to FRED, the US's public debt was around 120.7% of its GDP in Q3 2024.

Resolution criteria.

This market resolves YES if FRED reports that that the US's Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product exceeds 125.00000% in Q4 2025. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
Note that this measure includes only federal debt, not state or local debt. For more information on the series, see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
The market will resolve once the FRED has posted the value for Q4 2025. In the extremely unlikely event that FRED has not posted this value by the market's resolution, the market will resolve N/A.

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bought Ṁ3,843 NO

@legal_eagle @mods Resolves NO, FRED published Q4 2025 as mentioned in the resolution criteria, and it is at 122.305, which is lower than 125%. Sorry for immediate ping, but it says creator has been inactive for over a year so I don't think they will resolve it themselves.