The UK has announced that new sales of petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2030.
The ban doesn't affect second hand cars, but the only cars which can be sold new are full electric or hybrids which can travel "a significant distance" in zero emissions mode - presumably meaning plug-in hybrids which can be operated as electric vehicles. There's a bit more info here:
2030 is looking an incredibly ambitious deadline, especially as it's five years ahead of the EU's deadlien. The saving grace may be that adoption has already started - 23% of new cars sold in the UK in 2022 were pure EVs or PHEVs meaning that the ban might affect a relatively small proportion of the potential market by 2030.
Will the ban be delayed?
Resolution criterea (let me know if you'd like more clarity or info on any other cases);
If it not possible for a normal person to buy a new petrol or diesel car in January 2031, this market will resolve to NO
If the ban is delayed past December 2030, this market will resolve to YES
If the ban is so watered down that non-EV/PHEV cars can be sold in 2031 (eg. if a non-plugin hybrid is treated as a zero emission vehicle), this market will resolve to YES
Edit 20th September - the government has announced a delay to 2035.
Once this has been formalised (either by an Act of Parliament or through the use of ministerial power) I will resolve this market to YES.
If some future government move the deadline forward again after this market has been resolved, that does not change the fact that the current government delayed it and will not change this market.
1,000
1.00The changes have been passed into law, so this market resolves to YES.
I've added a couple more markets around EVs in the UK:
Given that resolution is by fact at the time of closure I’m stocking up on NO, this would have to pass parliament (likely but with significant push back) and if it does, there’s a general election around the corner where Labour could well re-implement it. Far from a done deal regardless of what Sunak says today.
@Noit the party in 2028/2029 who still supports this will just be wiped out. They will delay the whole thing at least one time.
@Noit If the ban is formally delayed (either by an act of Parliament or by usinng Ministerial power), this resolves to YES as per the second bullet point in the resolution criterea:
If the ban is delayed past December 2030, this market will resolve to YES
If the ban is delayed, it doesn't need to wait until 2030 to resolve. If it is delayed and then brought forward again at some point in the future, it was still delayed!
@SimonGrayson In that case, I’m selling my NO. This will almost certainly be delayed (legislation passed) and then will very likely be back in place by 2030. I’d probably recommend a wording change in the question there, to me it the logic would be “if there is an announced delay but it’s still in place by 2030 then NO”. Like, if I order a pizza and they tell me it’ll be late, but then it arrives on time, it was never actually late.
The 2030 ban continues to be a bit of a political hot potato.
A government minister has come out today saying that it will still go ahead, but if anything that has made people less confident rather than more!