Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?
1k
2030
14%
chance

Resolves YES if the National Grid announces it has reached its carbon neutral by 2030 target on or before 31st December 2030.

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predicts NO

Please update the description/resolve criteria.

predicts NO

@DanEllis hang on a minute - you can't just change the market to be about 2035 instead of 2030 after people have bet! I bet NO because I thought it wouldn't be carbon neutral by 2030. I might have made a different bet if it was 2035.

By all means create a second question for 2035 (sounds like that might be more interesting if that's when the target is for) but I don't think it's fair to move the goalposts on this one.

@Fion That’s fair. I have done as you ask.

predicts NO

@CromlynGames doh - wrong national grid!(probably where I'm going wrong ;-) - Given the government never does anything except cancel green initiatives, and provide hot air without any related action ... and a plan for 2035 ... 5 years early seems optimistic.

predicts NO

@DanielPugh although can't help noticing the white paper below targets 2050...

bought Ṁ100 of YES

It's on track, and currently limited by pylons, not generation

predicts NO

@CromlynGames If you look at the CCC net zero plans, it assumes roughly the equivalent of today's gas generation in H2 turbines. No H2 turbines is on the market yet, with the first prototypes being tested yet. Nothing makes me believe the UK is going to build that much infrastructure in 7 years.

predicts YES

@SebastianWorms I think, despite JRM's hype, hydrogen has fallen back out of favour (for good reason). There'll be some generation of it, for chemical uses. The later white paper has it as a rounding error, and dosen't discuss it at all. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-white-paper-powering-our-net-zero-future

predicts NO

@CromlynGames I was looking at the CCC website about a month ago and they relied on it to deal with Dunkelflaute. How do they do that in that white paper?

predicts NO

@SebastianWorms Okay, that white paper doesn't have detailed composition of the grid. Keep in mind that I'm talking capacity, not amount of energy, in a dunkeflaute you need enough hydrogen capacity to run the entire country, so you need a lot of turbines even if they only run some of the time and so only produce a small fraction of overall electricity. This WP still has 129 mentions of "hydrogen" in it though. Not sure how that count as "not discussing it at all".

predicts YES

@SebastianWorms which CCC report you starting from? The march 2023 afry one? https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-power-and-hydrogen-capacity-requirements-for-flexibility-afry/

I consider it a load of balls for the same reason you do - "roughly the equivalent of today's gas generation in H2 turbines. No H2 turbines is on the market yet, with the first prototypes being tested yet. Nothing makes me believe the UK is going to build that much infrastructure in 7 years."

The morrocco link is closer to underway and Beccs, gas CCS and old coal stations with a timber stockpile for emergency are all more established or feasible then the energy economics of hydrogen. You say the hydrogen can't be built so the target can't be met. I say the hydrogen can't be built but there's better options already.

predicts NO

@CromlynGames Gas CCS is also a relatively untested technology which I don't think will be deployed by 2030-2035. My personal guess is that, in the end, unabated gas will be use and energy will focus on decarbonizing other sectors (heating, transportation, industry) rather than focus on the last 5% of power sector emissions that are very hard to reduce.

predicts NO

@SebastianWorms I think this is a good prediction - and also a very good idea in terms of govt policy!