The UK is currently set to ban sales of new, non-hybrid petrol cars by 2030. Will this ban be implemented as currently planned?

Resolution Criteria

The UK Labour government has officially confirmed the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales, with hybrids allowed until 2035. This market resolves YES if the ban on sales of new non-hybrid petrol and diesel cars takes effect as scheduled on January 1, 2030. It resolves NO if the deadline is delayed, cancelled, or substantially modified before implementation.

Resolution will be determined by official UK government announcements and legislative status. Key sources for verification include the Department for Transport website (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport) and official government policy statements.

Background

In September 2024, the UK Labour government confirmed its decision to reinstate the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars, reversing the previous plan to delay it until 2035. The government's 'ZEV Mandate' has been put in place to push car manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of zero-emission models across their fleet of vehicle sales. This year's target is set at 33 per cent, and will increase year-on-year until 80 per cent in 2030. If car makers fail to hit these targets, the manufacturer will be fined £15,000 for every car it sells.

The EU made the monumental decision to scrap its own 2035 ban in December 2025, creating international pressure. The Conservative Party claims that if it wins the next general election in 2029, it will scrap the ban and ZEV mandate altogether.

Considerations

Many manufacturers are struggling to hit ZEV mandate targets that require 28 per cent of their sales to be zero-emission vehicles in 2025 and 33 per cent in 2026. Although the Government confirmed that the ZEV mandate will be reviewed over the coming year, ministers insisted they remain committed to its overall goals. The next UK general election is scheduled for 2029, which could create political uncertainty around the policy's future.

This description was generated by AI.