Will the next Republican Senate leader be named John?
Will the next Republican Senate leader be named John?
21
1kṀ12k
resolved Nov 20
Resolved
YES

Mitch McConnell has announced that he is stepping down as the Republican leader in the Senate:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/28/mitch-mcconnell-step-down-republican-leader-senate

The Guardian have named John Cornyn, John Barasso and John Thune among his most likely successors and they are among the early favourites on the Manifold market - Who will be the Republican Senate leader after Mitch McConnell?

Will his successor be one of these three or another John?

The market resolves to YES if their first or their surname is John. Middle names don’t count unless they go by their middle name as their main given name.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ413
2Ṁ199
3Ṁ83
4Ṁ66
5Ṁ24


Sort by:
7mo

@SimonGrayson can resolve?

1y

Simon I think we should unsubsidize this by the mod guidelines for dupes. What do you think? I know it doesn't feel good to find out your great idea was already thought of by someone else, but splitting trading across two identical markets is not great for user experience for all those traders.

1y

@Eliza Of course - no objections from me if those are the guidelines!

I agree that it’s never good to have duplicates especially since this market is already slightly silly - I wouldn’t have made this market if I’d realised that there was an identical one.

1y

@SimonGrayson I don't think the site really knows what it wants to do about duplicates, and I don't think this is a particularly great solution, but it is what the guidelines currently say. By unsubsidizing it early, we can avoid weird situations like "there are two of the same market with 40 traders each", but....that could still happen anyway because you have a lot of followers!

It feels like there could be some kind of good option where your traders here just got shares in the other market, and your creation liquidity was used to prop up that one also. Then everyone gets a bigger pool to play in....

1y

Arb lol

1y

@Joshua Oh wow. I’m usually quite good at checking for duplicates but I didn’t think anyone had had the exact same idea as me there!

1y

@SimonGrayson As soon as I saw the top 3 choices being named John, I had to make the market

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy