Will the next Republican Senate leader be named John?
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Plus
10
Ṁ280
Jan 31
88%
chance

Mitch McConnell has announced that he is stepping down as the Republican leader in the Senate:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/28/mitch-mcconnell-step-down-republican-leader-senate

The Guardian have named John Cornyn, John Barasso and John Thune among his most likely successors and they are among the early favourites on the Manifold market - /PlasmaBallin/who-will-be-the-republican-senate-l

Will his successor be one of these three or another John?

The market resolves to YES if their first or their surname is John. Middle names don’t count unless they go by their middle name as their main given name.

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Simon I think we should unsubsidize this by the mod guidelines for dupes. What do you think? I know it doesn't feel good to find out your great idea was already thought of by someone else, but splitting trading across two identical markets is not great for user experience for all those traders.

@Eliza Of course - no objections from me if those are the guidelines!

I agree that it’s never good to have duplicates especially since this market is already slightly silly - I wouldn’t have made this market if I’d realised that there was an identical one.

@SimonGrayson I don't think the site really knows what it wants to do about duplicates, and I don't think this is a particularly great solution, but it is what the guidelines currently say. By unsubsidizing it early, we can avoid weird situations like "there are two of the same market with 40 traders each", but....that could still happen anyway because you have a lot of followers!

It feels like there could be some kind of good option where your traders here just got shares in the other market, and your creation liquidity was used to prop up that one also. Then everyone gets a bigger pool to play in....

Arb lol

@Joshua Oh wow. I’m usually quite good at checking for duplicates but I didn’t think anyone had had the exact same idea as me there!

@SimonGrayson As soon as I saw the top 3 choices being named John, I had to make the market

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