As of market creation, this market has a 64% cumulative chance that someone with the first name of John is the next Republican Leader. Sure, it only has 2 traders, but who knows!
Resolves YES if the successor of Mitch McConnell (either the next Republican majority or minority leader) has a first name of John (Jon does not count). This market will resolve NO otherwise.
Market from @JosephNoonan
Related questions
@JosephNoonan Going for that Jon(i) Ernst angle? Unfortunately she would not count for the purposes of this market.
(I wrote that comment before realizing that Command + F was lying to me,,, but the same principle applies, only “John”s count)
@JoshuaB That looks like it's just a misspelling of her name. I meant if someone whose name is Jon, but without the H. I noticed when looking on the list of Republican whips that the third-most-recent was Jon Kyl: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Kyl
Obviously, he won't be the leader, since he's retired, but what if a new Jon rises to power?
@JosephNoonan Yeah, that won't count. The name must be John.
(The reason Joni appeared as Jon is since Command + F for Jon was covering up the i in her name)
@JosephNoonan That article is actually where I got John Barasso as a candidate from. Before I was just going to include John Thune and John Cornyn as the most recent Republican whips.
@JoshuaB actually what would you think of removing “McConnell” for even greater stylistic consistency
@Conflux Well, then arguably if we get another Mitch, then is it really a different leader? Like, Mitch McConnell -> Mitch McDonalds -> John Johnward, who would even know how to resolve at that point??
Thouuugh, the stylistic point is somewhat compelling, I’ll think about it