How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
Mini
28
2.6k
2025
129
expected

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

It would be nice if one could bet to win a certain sum for every seat above a level (and lose for every seat below that level).

Arb opportunity with this market, which is currently predicting more like 200 CON seats. I’m interested to see if the different market formats eventually coalesce or if they actively encourage different stable points.

@Noit I think the numeric format probably has room for improvement. I tried having a go with the "higher" and "lower" buttons a while ago, but they get me shares in parts of the distribution I don't want and they don't move the market much. Buying straight from the distribution seems better, but I only discovered it just now.

bought Ṁ0 390-455 YES

I like this as a numerical market! It will be interesting to see how it correlates with this binary market I set up a while back…

/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few