How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
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1kṀ12kresolved Jul 6
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It would be nice if one could bet to win a certain sum for every seat above a level (and lose for every seat below that level).
Arb opportunity with this market, which is currently predicting more like 200 CON seats. I’m interested to see if the different market formats eventually coalesce or if they actively encourage different stable points.
@Noit I think the numeric format probably has room for improvement. I tried having a go with the "higher" and "lower" buttons a while ago, but they get me shares in parts of the distribution I don't want and they don't move the market much. Buying straight from the distribution seems better, but I only discovered it just now.
bought Ṁ0 390-455 YES1y
I like this as a numerical market! It will be interesting to see how it correlates with this binary market I set up a while back…
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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